What I’m Reading
No Shock Here: Transactional volume has fallen sharply, but refinancing activity is keeping the capital markets moving through the pandemic. This is a best-case scenario for a sharp downturn since it means that there is still ample liquidity for performing assets that require recapitalization due to loan maturity. So long as this continues, I would not expect to see across-the-board price declines like we saw in 2009. Globe Street
Sweet Spot: Demographics will be a positive tailwind for home buying – and household formation – through around 2030. Calculated Risk
Size Matters: McDonald’s, Chipotle and Domino’s are booming during the age of COVID while smaller independent eateries struggle to keep their doors open. In other words, the golden age of dining may have ended. This is just depressing:
Yet many other chains say now is a time to get more aggressive. Olive Garden’s parent, Darden Restaurants Inc., is looking into expanding in urban areas including Manhattan where rents were previously too expensive to justify growth. Plenty of space is opening up: 87% of 450 restaurant bars, and clubs in New York said in a recent survey that they couldn’t pay their full rent for August, according to the NYC Hospitality Alliance.
Congratulations, NYC. Not only have you suffered more from COVID than pretty much anywhere else, your streets are about to go from being filled with awesome independent restaurants to Olive Gardens and Cheesecake Factories when things finally recover.
Rebound: AirBnb has pulled out of its tailspin from the early days of COVID when its business came to a screeching halt. The home sharing giant is now seeing increased demand from both leisure and business travelers, which will likely serve to slow the hotel recovery further. Wall Street Journal
Only the Beginning: The global small parcel market is expected to more than double from 103 billion parcels in 2019 to between 220 and 262 billion parcels by 2026, driven predominantly by e-commerce volumes generated by China and the United States, according to Pitney Bowes’ latest annual shipping index. JOC.com
Chart of the Day
Lumber about to make this a round trip flight.
Source: @DiMartinoBooth
WTF
Teaming Up: In a sign of the times, influencers feel that they are being taken advantage of by brands – and forming unions to fight back. The Guardian
Nature is Healing: An elite sex club is planning a Black Death-themed Halloween party after cancelling all of their orgies amid the COVID crisis. I, for one am glad that things are finally getting back to normal. The US Sun
Basis Points – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.
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