August 13th – Beach Reads Week in Review

What I’m Reading

Feeding Frenzy: Bidding wars are typical in for-sale housing during a tight market.  Now we are seeing them for apartment rentals.  CNBC

A Tale of Two Markets: Big apartment landlords are thriving during the eviction moratorium while mom and pop owners of buildings with five or less units are struggling.  Multi-Housing News

Kicking the Can: The Biden administration is extending a moratorium on federal student-loan payments that had been set to expire at the end of September unit January 31, 2022.  The extension is effectively a raise for those with student debt who are gainfully employed – albeit a temporary one. (h/t Chris Dorociak) Wall Street Journal

No Vacancy: The ports of LA and Long Beach continue to experience their highest volume on record, resulting in industrial vacancy below 1% in nearby submarkets. As a (very small) South Bay warehouse landlord, we can vouch for this.  We recently leased a vacancy at our Signal Hill property that we own with Manhattan West at 10% above proforma with no tenant improvements or concessions.  The tenant took occupancy on a 5-year term about a week after the lease was executed. Bisnow

Behind the Curve: Home builders have sold more homes than they can build. Now they are limiting their sales in an effort to catch up, helping push home prices even higher.  Labor shortages and supply chain issues will continue to make it difficult for builders to catch up – at least until mortgage rates rise substantially which will cool purchase demand and push marginal buyers into the rental pool.  Wall Street Journal

Scapegoat: Eviction moratoriums are effectively forcing (mostly small) landlords to bear the burden of policy failures like failing to distribute rent relief efficiently and not allowing enough housing construction.  Washington Post

Tug of War: Employers are waging a war against work from home.  So far, work from home is winning with tight employment conditions allowing employees to quit jobs that require office attendance and find ones that do not.  Business Insider

Not So Fast: Companies thought that they had a plan for returning to work in the fall.  The Delta variant is forcing them to push return dates back substantially.  This is bad news for office landlords as it will allow work from home to become even more entrenched. Its worse news for service businesses in close proximity to major office centers.  Wall Street Journal

Chart of the Day Great illustration of the conditions that have resulted in a near-perfect storm for rent inflation.  If mortgage rates go up, we go from near-perfect to perfect.   apartment leads and vacancy Source: RealPage

WTF

King of the Hill: An Oregon motorist who blew a 0.778 blood alcohol reading – a new US record – has been sentenced to 13 months in prison.  The Smoking Gun

Extracurricular: A  middle school teacher was charged with drug trafficking after deputies found multiple grams of fentanyl, methamphetamine and heroin in his RV because Florida.  NY Post

Basis Points – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related. 

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