January 31st – Breaking Point

What I’m Reading

Breaking Point: Combined inbound volume fell about 14% at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, Calif. in December compared with a year ago, according to preliminary data from the ports. It was the fourth straight month of year-over-year declines.  Unfortunately this is not an indicator that the backlog is easing – its exactly the opposite.  Ships continue to pile up but the comparisons to the previous year are difficult because import volume was so high.  Couple that with omicron issues with an already thin workforce and you have a recipe for volumes to fall off somewhat.  Wall Street Journal

Coming Up Short: Two years after Apple, Google, and Meta vowed to spend $4.5 billion to create more than 40,000 new homes in their home state of California, they’ve accomplished a fraction of that goal.  The Real Deal Turns out that all the cash in the world is no match for California’s restrictive development regime.  Shocking.

Holding Firm: Despite consistently hawkish commentary from the Federal reserve, 5-year inflation breakeven has barely budged.  Econbrowser

You Don’t Say: Business Insider felt the need to write a 650 word article to explain that virtual real estate in the metaverse is “more crypto asset than physical land.”  Business Insider Apparently there are people out there who were unaware.  Wow.

Headwind: Multifamily investors are bracing for an uptick in mortgage rates.  Mortgage bankers in the space believe that the impact will be fairly mild and that lending volumes will increase somewhat with more borrowers opting for fixed rates as borrowers trade prepayment flexibility in favor of stability.  Multi-Housing News

Chart of the Day

Mortgage rates moving up when the Fed hikes is a great example of something that sounds perfectly rational in theory but doesn’t necessarily happen in practice.

time series chart of US 30-year fixed mortgage rate and federal funds rate

Source: Len Kiefer

WTF

Deezenutz: A man was arrested for feeding his “attack squirrel” named Deeznutz meth because Alabama. Fox 5

Catch Me if You Can: A fugitive attempted murderer taunted police by changing his Facebook profile picture to a gingerbread man and posting about how ‘good looking’ his mugshot is.  Daily Mail

Basis Points – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related. 

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