March 15th – Lockdown

What I’m Reading

Lockdown: China has locked down the business center  of Shenzhen, a city of 17 million people which includes one of the country’s largest port complexes, due to a COVID outbreak.  NBC News  In a “normal” environment, this would be headline news but it isn’t being discussed that widely yet thanks to the Ukraine invasion.  This is a big deal and will absolutely cause more supply chain/inflation problems.  

Political Risk: With the housing market tight and rents exploding higher in much of the country, an increasing number of municipalities are considering rent control measures.  Wall Street Journal  What is most astounding here is that this hasn’t worked anywhere that its been tried and typically makes the situation worse. But why let the facts get in the way of a decent sounding narrative?

Hungry Hippos: PE giants are allocating capital to real estate at a blistering pace, as the sector continues to outperform fixed income on a relative basis.  Consultants expect the trend to continue to accelerate over the next decade.  Evergreen Memos

Self Inflicted Wound: International migration to the US has fallen dramatically since 2016.  Some of this was due to COVID but at least as much was due to bad, short sighted policy.  Econofact  With birth rates falling, turning this trend around is the best way to grow the economy and deal with labor shortages.

Bid ‘Em Up: We have become accustomed to seeing bidding wars for houses that go on the market for sale.  Now its happening for apartments as well.  A new report shows that one in five New York apartments faces a bidding war among renters.  Crain’s New York Business

Chart of the Day

So, I have this wild theory about our worker shortage….

Net international migration to the U.S. 2010-2021. Net migration to the U.S. peaked in 2016 with just over 1 million migrants. It has been in a steady decline since, with 2021 seeing a net migration of just over 200,000 people.

Source: Econofact

WTF

Taste Tester: Concerned that the meth he had purchased was actually bath salts, a man dialed 911 and asked police to test his stash, a request that resulted in his arrest on multiple drug charges because Florida. The Smoking Gun

Open Carry: A 27-year-old man who identified himself as a homeless model is facing criminal charges for masturbating in public view at a Starbucks because Florida.  Local10.com

Basis Points – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related. 

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