February 15th – Upside-Down

What I’m Reading

Upside-Down: Zillow’s shuttered home-flipping business somehow lost $881 million in 2021 while prices were up like 15% nationwide.  Wall Street Journal  Being this bad is actually sort of impressive in a perverse way.

South of the Border: Californians looking for lower mortgage or rent payments are increasingly heading south to Mexico for more affordable prices, and the influx of residents has sparked a real estate boom in Tijuana.  Fox Business As I have said in this space before, of of California’s top exports is shitty land use politics.  Newly-minted TJ NIMBYs are about to go HAM.    

Permanent Decline? At some point in the next century, global population growth is going to turn negative.  The question is how quickly.  The Atlantic  Keep this in mind when framing today’s debate over inflation.

Normalizing: Apartment demand is normalizing somewhat but absorption is still outpacing deliveries across all classes of apartments.  As a result, rent increases will likely fall in the high single or low double digit range nationwide in 2022.  Globe Street

Flattening Out: The only serious remaining case for Fed patience in the face of rising inflation is that break-evens haven’t been going up.  The Bellows

Charts of the Day

We are in uncharted territory with regards to recent upward movement in mortgage rates.

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However, inventory is still hitting record lows.

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Homes are still selling quickly.

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And price reductions are at record lows.

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Source: Altos Research

WTF

Joy Ride: A school bus driver was arrested for DUI while driving dozens of middle school students home because Florida.  The Tampa Free Press

Crunchy: A woman allegedly found a human tooth in a Subway sandwich because Florida.  Q105

Basis Points – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related. 

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