January 18th – Sharpened Pencils

What I’m Reading

Sharpened Pencils: There is so much money flooding into the build-to-rent space that it is making land in outer-ring suburbs expensive and making deals difficult to pencil out.  This is the point in the cycle where it takes aggressive underwriting to make a lot of cookie cutter deals work.  Those assumptions may come to fruition out or they may not. Caveat Emptor.  Globe Street

Chopped: Appraisal reductions on CMBS loans are up fourfold over the past year, indicating potential cashflow problems for investors in junior tranches.  The Real Deal

Not So Fast: Some are assuming that the incoming administration will spur more Chinese investment in US real estate. However domestic capital restrictions in China make this unlikely.  Bisnow

Don’t Call it a Comeback: Manhattan apartment leases almost doubled last month, a sign that sliding rents and landlord freebies are drawing tenants to New York’s costliest borough and one of the markets hit hardest by the pandemic.  Bloomberg

Kicking the Can: President Elect Biden’s $1.9 trillion proposed COVID relief package would extend the eviction moratorium out until the end of September while providing more (but frankly still not close to enough) rental assistance.  The Real Deal

Chart of the Day

This is a remarkable pandemic-driven divergence.

Image

Source: @Piper_Sandler

WTF

Cleanse: A teacher was arrested for spraying a student with aerosol  disinfectant during a mask dispute because Florida.  Fox13

Ready for Battle: A man has been spotted regularly driving a military tank through a suburban neighborhood because Florida.  CBS Miami

Basis Points – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.

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