What I'm Reading Dried Up: Refinance activity has dried up and isn't expected to rebound this year per Old Republic Title's earnings call. Housing Wire Drying Out: Arizona has become the first state to experience deep cutbacks caused by a drought-fueled decline in the Colorado River. The reduction will hit...
May 2nd – Whipsaw
What I'm Reading Whipsaw: US GDP surprised to the downside last week, declining 1.4%. The drop stemmed from a widening trade deficit. Imports to the U.S. surged and exports fell, dynamics reflecting pandemic-related supply-chain constraints. A slower pace of inventory investment by businesses in the first quarter—compared with a rapid...
April 29th – On the Fence
What I'm Reading On the Fence: China's cabinet is split over whether or not to provide stimulus to bail out the country's tanking property market as fears of re-inflating a bubble persist. Financial Times Watch this space. Developers in China account for a large percentage of global commodity consumption. If...
April 28th – SALT in the Wound
What I'm Reading SALT in the Wound: The Supreme Court rejected a challenge to the SALT deduction cap from the 2017 Trump tax bill. Looks like the $10k cap is here to stay, at least until it sunsets in 2025. Commercial Observer Streamline: A new California bill - AB2234 -...
April 27th – Hitting the Wall
What I'm Reading Hitting the Wall: Trucking demand is “near freight recession levels,” according to Bank of America. Shippers’ outlook on rates, capacity and inventory levels are matching attitudes not seen since May and June 2020, when pandemic lockdowns sent freight volumes into a historic decline. Freight Waves Halted: Ships...
April 22nd – Tough Nut to Crack
What I'm Reading Tough Nut to Crack: The price of a home sold in March set a record, as inventory dwindled and sales fell. Sharply rising mortgage rates are not showing much of an impact on housing yet. CNBC As discussed here previously, I believe that structural factors in the...
April 21st – Back to School
What I'm Reading Boomtown: A massive population influx has set off a boom in South Florida's industrial market. With low vacancies, scarce land and continued population and economic growth, its likely to continue. Wealthmanagement.com Back to School: BREIT's insatiable appetite continues with its just-announced purchase of student housing REIT American...
April 20th – Stay
What I'm Reading Staying Put: Nine out of ten mortgages in America carry an interest rate of less than 5%, which is the official level at which most new 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are now being written. Expect homeowners to hold onto their houses longer. Axios Sounding the Alarm: A Riverside...
April 8th – Fake it Till You Make It
What I'm Reading Fake it Till You Make It: A Miami (of course) company is offering "crypto mortgages" Wall Street Journal However, a careful reading of the offering reveals that it's still just a loan secured by the property with an additional pledge of the borrower's crypto holdings. This will...
April 4th – Fighting the Last War
What I'm Reading Fighting the Last War: We tend to look to the recent past to understand today's market. However, the inflationary period of the late 1970s - which saw a decline in real housing prices with nominal prices up somewhat - is probably a better analogy than the housing...