What I’m Reading
Mean Reversion: Consumer behavior is shifting back towards pre-pandemic trends when it comes to ecommerce versus brick and mortar shopping volume. Wall Street Journal FWIW, I don’t think that either of these trends are going anywhere. Ecommerce will continue to grow share but brick and mortar is far from dead. The last few years was characterized by an environment where ecommerce was the only game in town for a period of time. It makes sense that we would see mean reversion once its over.
Clogged Up: The COVID lockdowns in China in general and Shanghai in particular are creating an environment that could lead to supply chain disruptions even greater than those experienced in 2020 and 2021. Freight Waves
Rise of the Machines: Despite mixed (at best) results, iBuyers are increasing their reach and likely coming to a neighborhood near you. Technology Review
Backlash: Higher commodity prices coupled with war and likely recessions in both Europe and China are increasing the risk of deflation in the not-too-distant future. Stenos Signals The cure for high prices are high prices. Same as it ever was.
End Around: With interest rates rising and mortgage qualification becoming more difficult, home builders are increasingly bypassing sales to individual home buyers in favor of selling to large built for rent investors in bulk. Wall Street Journal IMO, this is becoming an ever-larger risk to investing in residential product. The situation will get more precarious if institutional investors are able to capitalize on distress and take share.
Chart of the Day
Migration broken out by county tells an interesting story.
Source: Business Insider
WTF
Mother of the Year: A woman was busted for putting a 4-year old boy in a laundry dryer and turning it on because Florida. NY Post
Locked and Loaded: A man was arrested at a traffic stop when police found him with drugs, guns and a small alligator because Florida. NY Post
Basis Points – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.
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