What I’m Reading
Emptied Out: In 2011, US department stores employed 1.2 million employees across 8,600 stores, according to estimates from the research firm IBISWorld. But in 2020, there are now fewer than 700,000 employees in the sector, working across just over 6,000 locations. Vox
Comeback Kid: The fact that AirBnb is about to go public – at a $35 billion valuation – after the year that we just had is truly remarkable, especially given that they were laying people off in the spring as revenue neared zero. It is also an example of how difficult the prediction business is, even in the short term. The Generalist
Dry Powder: The magnitude of excess savings among US households – most likely around $1.4 trillion – is unprecedented historically. This will be a massive economic tailwind that could lead to a supercharged economy when the pandemic shutdowns finally end – and leave the Fed with a difficult decision. Bloomberg
Seller’s Market: Tight supply in the housing market is unlikely to abate any time soon, and the vaccine rollout coinciding with spring selling season could be rocket fuel for the housing market. However, this extreme swing in pricing could eventually sew the seeds of an urban recovery as big city rents become very cheap next to suburban cost of ownership. Bloomberg
Opportunists: Retailers who have thrived during the pandemic – primarily of big sellers of groceries, furniture, discount goods and pet supplies – are seizing on brick and mortar distress and buying shopping centers. Wall Street Journal
Chart of the Day
When it comes to personal income, this recession couldn’t look anymore different from the last one.
Source: @MizuhoAmericas
WTF
It’s A Nice: A Kazakhstani body builder has married a sex doll after a whirlwind romance. Remember this anytime that the Kazakh government bitches about being portrayed poorly in the Borat movies. NY Post
Everything Must Go: An OnlyFans ‘model’ who became famous for selling her bathwater to perv fans is now selling used condoms from her porno shoots to ever more sick folks. Perhaps the worst part of this is that she probably makes substantially more money than you or me. 2020, Y’all. Daily Star
Basis Points – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.
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