What I’m Reading
Slow and Steady: While the CMBS issuance volume has been consistently inching upward, 2020 issuance will close at roughly half of what was predicted a year ago, according to Kroll Bond Rating Agency. Kroll estimates this year’s total CMBS issuance will be $55 million while $95 billion was anticipated. They also project that 2021 production will be $60 billion with conduit volume will be hindered by the low demand for hotels and nonessential retail. While these numbers are by no means spectacular or even good, it bears repeating: this is not 2008/2009 when the capital market completely shut down, causing a crash. Commercial Property Executive
Permanent Shift: When the COVID crisis recedes, housing could be in for a temporary hangover. However, the now-proven ability to work from home effectively will likely keep driving demand in vacation and second home markets. Wall Street Journal
In the Money: A new report from Black Knight found that the number of “high quality” refinance candidates continues to climb as mortgage rates remain well below 3%. According to the report, a massive 19.4 million homeowners are now in a position to save through refi’s – the most in history. This represents $5.98 billion per month in aggregate potential savings. Black Knight
Staying Power: The pandemic has accelerated trends and led to massive infrastructure investment in technologies that allow us to do more things at home. What were conveniences before the pandemic now seem necessities that we’re unlikely to give up even after there’s widespread immunity to the coronavirus. In other words, the stay-at-home-economy is here to stay. Wall Street Journal
Gobbled Up: The pandemic has only tech titans more of a dominant force in commercial real estate. While most other companies are holding off on property transactions amid uncertainty over the economy and the rising popularity of remote work, Amazon, Facebook, Google and their peers continue to lease and buy space. Wall Street Journal
Chart of the Day
This represents a substantial economic stimulus driven by those in a position to refinance and save on payments.
Source: Len Kiefer
WTF
Sausage Party: Comedians who have utilized Zoom as a way to stay in front of audiences have a new problem: their shows keep getting interrupted by dick pics. Vice
FIGHT! I feel as though we were robbed this year as the pandemic virtually wiped out the enjoyment of watching cell phone videos of idiots fighting over cheap crap on Black Friday. That being said, this 3-minute pant-less brawl in a Florida Wawa is better than any Black Friday videos that I’ve seen in recent years. NY Post
Basis Points – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.
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