What I'm Reading South of the Border: Californians looking for lower mortgage or rent payments are increasingly heading south to Mexico for more affordable prices, and the influx of residents has sparked a real estate boom in Tijuana. Fox Business As I have said in this space before, of of...
February 14th – Squeezed
What I'm Reading Squeezed: U.S. housing affordability continues to get worse by the day as home prices rise alongside mortgage-interest rates. Wall Street Journal Roadmap: The 2013 taper tantrum and 1994’s crunch are good examples of how a bond bear market does not always need to equal recession. Bloomberg Crosswinds:...
February 11th – Coming in Hot
What I'm Reading Coming in Hot: YoY inflation is now 7.5%, the highest rate since 1982. As expected OER, which tends to be sticky turned sharply higher. This seals the deal for a 25 basis point increase at the Fed's March meeting. It also increases the odds of a 50...
February 10th – Shrinkage
What I'm Reading Shifting Focus: Foreign investment in US commercial real estate has exceeded pre-pandemic levels. The big difference is that overseas investors are focusing much more on warehouses and apartments than they were before the pandemic - just like domestic investors. Wall Street Journal Rise of the Machines: Advances...
February 9th – Round Trip
What I'm Reading Out of the Basement: The amount of negative yielding debt in the world is falling rapidly. After topping out at $17.8 trillion at the end of 2020, it has dropped to $6.1 trillion today. Expect this to continue to fall as central banks hike. Bloomberg One big...
February 8th – Fire Sale
What I'm Reading Fire Sale: Retail rents are plunging in Manhattan as a lack of office workers makes businesses less viable. On the positive side, falling rates and aggressive concessions have led to falling availability as tenants snap up prime locations at a discount. Bloomberg Decelerating: CoreLogic is projecting that...
February 7th – Defying Gravity
What I'm Reading Defying Gravity: Apartment leasing is typically a seasonal business, with demand cooling with the weather in the winter months. That has not been the case in 2021 and thus far in 2022. Both Q4 occupancy and January occupancy increased for the first time in history, according to...
February 4th – Road Block
What I'm Reading Roadblock: Demand for warehouses in the Inland Empire is massive, pushing new development further east. However, residents are not happy with having new industrial developments nearby and are pushing back hard, resulting in substantial delays or the outright withdrawal of applications. Globe Street This is great news...
February 3rd – Backlog
What I'm Reading Bursting at the Seams: As retailers and logistics companies try to stockpile goods to hedge against supply chain problems, they are facing a new challenge: In many parts of the United States, there is little to no space available to stash the merchandise. Logistics firms are finding...
February 2nd – Rush Hour
What I'm Reading Rush Hour: Buyers are scrambling to purchase homes while rates are still low. In the meantime, supply is down substantially. As a result, buying has become even more competitive, especially at lower price points leaving prospective homeowners stuck between soaring rents and unobtainable ownership. CNBC Widening Out:...