What I'm Reading Long in the Tooth: The average US warehouse is 42 years old and only 14% of warehouses are less than 10 years old. This is a big problem in an industry that is changing rapidly where older product tends to be functionally obsolete. Newer buildings typically have...
May 10th – Clearing the Deck
What I'm Reading Clear the Deck: Western ports are bracing for increased congestion when China eventually lifts stringent Covid-19 restrictions in major cities, which could come just as many importers start to load up for the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons. The race is on to clear existing cargo and...
May 9th – Boomerang
What I'm Reading Boomerang: Millions of older Americans retired early during the pandemic, leaving the US in a severe labor imbalance. However, new data indicates that they are returning to the workforce in large numbers in recent months. Many retirees are being pulled back to jobs by a combination of...
May 6th – Mean Reversion
What I'm Reading Mean Reversion: Americans have returned to their pre-pandemic consumption habits with spending on gyms, concerts and recreational travel up substantially. At the same time, pandemic darlings like Peloton, Netflix and Instacart have underperformed. Wall Street Journal My take: a lot of this is mean reversion. Americans were...
May 5th – Anchors Aweigh
What I'm Reading Leading Indicator? Amazon's rapid expansion in both labor and capital capacity over the past couple of years turned out to be a leading indicator of inflation. The overbuilding and over hiring comments in its latest earnings report may be a good indicator that inflation is slowing. Bloomberg...
May 4th -Falling Behind
What I'm Reading Substitution Effect: Executives running some of the world’s biggest retailers, manufacturers and consumer-products makers say they are seeing signs that people are becoming less willing to absorb price increases. This includes an uptick in demand for discount products. Wall Street Journal Falling Behind: Debt funds, life insurance...
May 3rd – Dried Up
What I'm Reading Dried Up: Refinance activity has dried up and isn't expected to rebound this year per Old Republic Title's earnings call. Housing Wire Drying Out: Arizona has become the first state to experience deep cutbacks caused by a drought-fueled decline in the Colorado River. The reduction will hit...
May 2nd – Whipsaw
What I'm Reading Whipsaw: US GDP surprised to the downside last week, declining 1.4%. The drop stemmed from a widening trade deficit. Imports to the U.S. surged and exports fell, dynamics reflecting pandemic-related supply-chain constraints. A slower pace of inventory investment by businesses in the first quarter—compared with a rapid...
April 29th – On the Fence
What I'm Reading On the Fence: China's cabinet is split over whether or not to provide stimulus to bail out the country's tanking property market as fears of re-inflating a bubble persist. Financial Times Watch this space. Developers in China account for a large percentage of global commodity consumption. If...
April 28th – SALT in the Wound
What I'm Reading SALT in the Wound: The Supreme Court rejected a challenge to the SALT deduction cap from the 2017 Trump tax bill. Looks like the $10k cap is here to stay, at least until it sunsets in 2025. Commercial Observer Streamline: A new California bill - AB2234 -...