What I'm Reading Mixed Signals: The US employment report for June continued to show a strong labor market consistent with a strong economy with moderating inflationary pressures. However, other economic data are telling a worrisome story of an economy that could be entering into recession even while the underlying inflation...
June 28th – Bid ‘Em Up
What I'm Reading Bid 'Em Up: An unattainably expensive housing market and record low vacancies have resulted in a once-unthinkable situation - bidding wars for rental units. NPR Kicking the Can: Rising rates will make it difficult for some borrowers on marginal properties to refinance maturing CMBS loans. Expect another...
May 20th – Holding the Bag
What I'm Reading Holding the Bag: The Federal Reserve now owns $2.72 trillion in mortgage backed securities, up from $1.4 trillion in 2020. It has announced the intent to shrink that amount substantially in order to help tighten monetary policy. However, most of those loans are at much lower rates...
May 5th – Anchors Aweigh
What I'm Reading Leading Indicator? Amazon's rapid expansion in both labor and capital capacity over the past couple of years turned out to be a leading indicator of inflation. The overbuilding and over hiring comments in its latest earnings report may be a good indicator that inflation is slowing. Bloomberg...
March 24th – Terminal Velocity
What I'm Reading Staying Power: Zillow's latest forecast predicts that the year-over-year rate of home price growth will hit 22% in May before gradually slowing to 17.8% in February 2023. This despite a dramatic rise in mortgage rates and decline in household affordability. Zillow It's almost as if people who...
March 9th – In the Cold
What I'm Reading In the Cold: US real estate investors like Hines and Morgan Stanley have ridden out ruble devaluations, financial crises and the economic sanctions that followed Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea to chalk up positive returns on their Russian real estate portfolios. Now they are facing calls to...
February 17th – Tale of the Tape
What I'm Reading Tale of the Tape: Mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP sits just below 50%, high on a historical basis but nowhere near GFC levels of over 70%. Calculated Risk Roll Up: Blackstone's BREIT purchased Sunbelt rental apartment owner Preferred Apartment Communities in a 5.8 billion deal. ...
February 15th – Upside-Down
What I'm Reading South of the Border: Californians looking for lower mortgage or rent payments are increasingly heading south to Mexico for more affordable prices, and the influx of residents has sparked a real estate boom in Tijuana. Fox Business As I have said in this space before, of of...
February 7th – Defying Gravity
What I'm Reading Defying Gravity: Apartment leasing is typically a seasonal business, with demand cooling with the weather in the winter months. That has not been the case in 2021 and thus far in 2022. Both Q4 occupancy and January occupancy increased for the first time in history, according to...
January 20th – Getting High on Your Own Supply
Chart of the Day A bit of a narrative violation from RealPage's Jay Parsons challenging the assumption that supply constrained markets tend to outperform when it comes to rental growth. Supply, in and of itself isn't a bad thing. In fact it adds to economic growth creating jobs for new...