What I'm Reading Staying Power: As the pandemic fades, there was a sense that the effort to shorten supply lines and bring production back home would fade. However, that isn't happening. The construction of new manufacturing facilities in the US has soared 116% over the past year, dwarfing the 10%...
April 28th – SALT in the Wound
What I'm Reading SALT in the Wound: The Supreme Court rejected a challenge to the SALT deduction cap from the 2017 Trump tax bill. Looks like the $10k cap is here to stay, at least until it sunsets in 2025. Commercial Observer Streamline: A new California bill - AB2234 -...
April 22nd – Tough Nut to Crack
What I'm Reading Tough Nut to Crack: The price of a home sold in March set a record, as inventory dwindled and sales fell. Sharply rising mortgage rates are not showing much of an impact on housing yet. CNBC As discussed here previously, I believe that structural factors in the...
March 3rd – Beware the Ides of March
What I'm Reading Beware the Ides of March: With omicron cases falling, major employers say they spot a window to bring workers back to the office. However, with a tight job market, the question becomes whether or not employees are willing. Wall Street Journal Embedded: Russian oligarchs have spent decades...
February 14th – Squeezed
What I'm Reading Squeezed: U.S. housing affordability continues to get worse by the day as home prices rise alongside mortgage-interest rates. Wall Street Journal Roadmap: The 2013 taper tantrum and 1994’s crunch are good examples of how a bond bear market does not always need to equal recession. Bloomberg Crosswinds:...
November 12th – Baby Boom?
What I'm Reading Baby Boom? A recent Bank of America research note struck an optimistic tone compared with the poor demographic data in the 2020 Census. The report showed that birth rates are beginning to tick up and leading indicators - such as the sale of pregnancy tests - point...
November 3rd – Fire Sale
What I'm Reading Fire Sale? Zillow is looking to unload 7,000 homes for $2.8 billion after royally screwing up their iBuying strategy and substantially overpaying for acquisitions. They are listing the homes at a loss. The news came after Zillow announced that they would be taking a pause from buying...
July 13th – Risky Business
What I'm Reading Liftoff: With apartment shortages across much of the country, rents are climbing at the fastest pace seen in decades. Smaller growth markets like Boise continue to lead the way. With for sale housing expensive and development not keeping pace with demand in most places, the real risk...
April 28th – Blind Spot
What I'm Reading Triple Threat: The worst-case tax scenario for real estate would be a simultaneous end to the 1031, basis step-up on death and doubling of capital gains. IMO, elimination of 1031 and doubling of capital gains would lead to far less transaction volume and increase the desirability of...
April 1st – Rebound
What I'm Reading Rebound: Apartment List's rent index posted its largest monthly increase since 2017 in March. The markets that saw the fastest declines in 2020 led the way. Globe Street Wiped Out: More than 10% of restaurants in the United States have closed permanently since the coronavirus pandemic began...