What I'm Reading No Easy Way Out: Builders are slamming on the brakes as home sales slow in light of extremely strained affordability. However, demand turns much quicker than supply and today's stoppage in production will likely sew the seeds of tomorrow's even more pronounced shortage. New York Times Pivot:...
July 20th – Bad Vibes
What I'm Reading Bad Vibes: Homebuilder sentiment dropped 12 points to 55, according to a monthly survey from the National Association of Home Builders, the largest drop in the survey's 37-year history with the exception of April 2020. Sentiment is also declining at a far faster rate than it did...
June 24th – Pulling the Ripcord
What I'm Reading Pulling the Ripcord: Looking back, the non-bank mortgage lenders rushing to sell shares to the public last year was probably the peak of the business cycle. Since then, borrowing costs have doubled, the market has slowed to a crawl and the buyers of those IPOs are left holding...
June 21st – Help Wanted
What I'm Reading Help Wanted: Construction projects across the U.S. are running short on labor just as $1 trillion in federal infrastructure money starts to kick in. Contractors are responding by offering benefits ranging from signing bonuses to housing allowances to attract and retain workers. Wall Street Journal Drying Up? Over...
June 3rd – Window of Opportunity?
What I'm Reading Window of Opportunity: Amazon's warehouse pullback is being viewed by some as an opportunity for logistics companies who have been largely boxed out by the e-commerce giant in recent years to pick up choice locations. Bisnow Instant Gratification: The recent proliferation of delivery apps that promise to...
June 1st – Disconnect
What I'm Reading Disconnect: US Economic data aren't adding up. Incomes indicate a very strong economy while expenditures show a somewhat weakening one. Something in the data is incorrect. The Overshoot Bullwhip: Lumber prices have shed over 50% since March and lumber yards are filling up as mills slow their...
May 13th – Can’t Fix Stupid
What I'm Reading Can't Fix Stupid: California's Democratic State Senate Leader Toni Atkins is proposing to spend $10 billion to help families buy homes. The proposal would create a revolving fund that would provide interest-free loans for up to 30% of the purchase price of a home for low- and...
April 28th – SALT in the Wound
What I'm Reading SALT in the Wound: The Supreme Court rejected a challenge to the SALT deduction cap from the 2017 Trump tax bill. Looks like the $10k cap is here to stay, at least until it sunsets in 2025. Commercial Observer Streamline: A new California bill - AB2234 -...
April 4th – Fighting the Last War
What I'm Reading Fighting the Last War: We tend to look to the recent past to understand today's market. However, the inflationary period of the late 1970s - which saw a decline in real housing prices with nominal prices up somewhat - is probably a better analogy than the housing...
March 4th – Seller’s Market
What I'm Reading Sellers Market: A new Reuters poll of property analysts suggests that US house prices would rise 10.3% this year. That was an upgrade from 8.0% in the December poll, suggesting underlying demand for housing is still strong and housing supply is still tight. Reuters Hitting the Wall:...