What I'm Reading Spreading Out: There is building anecdotal evidence that a substantial portion of surging demand for housing is due to the US undergoing another episode of average household sizes shrinking, much as it did in the 1970s. Calculated Risk Whack a Mole: People are ricocheting between skyrocketing rents...
December 13th – Tipping Point
What I'm Reading Tipping Point: China Evergrande has defaulted on the debt it owes to global investors, according to Fitch Ratings. Evergrande has already said it would “actively engage” with its foreign creditors to come up with a plan for restructuring but any such plan will require the blessing of...
November 12th – Baby Boom?
What I'm Reading Baby Boom? A recent Bank of America research note struck an optimistic tone compared with the poor demographic data in the 2020 Census. The report showed that birth rates are beginning to tick up and leading indicators - such as the sale of pregnancy tests - point...
October 5th – Honey Badger
What I'm Reading Staying Remote: PriceWaterhouseCoopers is freeing the entirety of its U.S. workforce to work remotely full-time, a decision that will impact 40,000 client services workers. The Real Deal In response, the CMBS markets did their best honey badger impression. Will be interesting to watch this one play out: ...
August 30th – Overloaded
One Big Thing Overload: Harvard University's "The State of the Nation's Housing 2021" report found, unsurprisingly that the nation's affordable housing crisis is getting worse. What is perhaps more troubling is that current economic and market conditions indicate that there is no end in sight. Globe Street That brings us...
August 23rd – Parched
What I'm Reading Parched: The federal government has declared a first-ever shortage on the Colorado River, announcing mandatory water cutbacks next year for Arizona, Nevada and Mexico. The river provides water to 40 million people and California could be impacted by 2024. This is going to have massive ramifications on...
July 22nd – Turning Japanese
What I'm Reading Turning Japanese: Not that long ago, global overpopulation was a popular fear. That is no longer the case and global birth trends point towards the opposite, especially in the developed world. The long term aging trend will have many implications, not the least of which is deflationary...
July 19th – Micro Marketing
What I'm Reading Micro Marketing: Cities have historically tried to increase job opportunities by trying to attract large companies with tax incentives. In the post COVID remote work world, cities are increasingly focusing their marketing efforts on appealing to individuals who already have a job but are looking for a...
July 12th – Uphill Climb
Chart of the Day Focusing interest rates and demographics today. First off, safe asset interest rates have been trending downward for much longer than most of us recognize. 700 years(!) per a Bank of England working paper. Source: Bank of England Second, long term demographic growth in the US is...
June 24th – Quid Pro Quo
What I'm Reading Payoff: Gov. Gavin Newsom says California will pay off all the past-due rent that accumulated in the nation's most populated state because of the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, a promise to make landlords whole while giving renters a clean slate. I'm sure that its just a...