What I'm Reading Topping Out: Active housing inventory for sale is up 29% year over year. However, it has been sitting at this level for three weeks now after soaring earlier in the year. Per Bill McBride: "This might be noise, or it might suggest a slowdown in inventory increases."...
July 21st – Tipping Point?
What I'm Reading Tipping Point? Industrial developers are delivering nearly 700m sf of warehouses across the US following two years of record absorption. Tenant demand remains incredibly strong. However, with a recession likely coming, there is an increasing risk of overbuilding in some markets. Bisnow Hitting Pause: Amazon has been...
June 15th – Tapping the Brakes
What I'm Reading Tapping the Brakes: From construction cost increases, to higher interest rates and rate cap costs and slowing sales, inflation is taking a toll on the CRE industry. Globe Street My guess? We are about to see a substantial slowdown in new development as the cost of capital...
June 14th – Taking the Plunge
What I'm Reading Jumping In: Big landlords are increasingly getting into the homebuilding business as demand for single-family rentals continues to surge. CNBC This is exactly what one should expect will happen given that the monthly cost of home ownership has doubled since January 2021. Priced Out: The cost of...
May 3rd – Dried Up
What I'm Reading Dried Up: Refinance activity has dried up and isn't expected to rebound this year per Old Republic Title's earnings call. Housing Wire Drying Out: Arizona has become the first state to experience deep cutbacks caused by a drought-fueled decline in the Colorado River. The reduction will hit...
April 29th – On the Fence
What I'm Reading On the Fence: China's cabinet is split over whether or not to provide stimulus to bail out the country's tanking property market as fears of re-inflating a bubble persist. Financial Times Watch this space. Developers in China account for a large percentage of global commodity consumption. If...
April 20th – Stay
What I'm Reading Staying Put: Nine out of ten mortgages in America carry an interest rate of less than 5%, which is the official level at which most new 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are now being written. Expect homeowners to hold onto their houses longer. Axios Sounding the Alarm: A Riverside...
April 7th – Rise of the Machines
What I'm Reading Rise of the Machines: Drone companies, often backed by massive ecommerce platforms, have been cleared to expand their operations across the U.S. The technology has become faster and more reliable with development. The big question is whether or not it will result in mass adoption. Wall Street...
February 17th – Tale of the Tape
What I'm Reading Tale of the Tape: Mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP sits just below 50%, high on a historical basis but nowhere near GFC levels of over 70%. Calculated Risk Roll Up: Blackstone's BREIT purchased Sunbelt rental apartment owner Preferred Apartment Communities in a 5.8 billion deal. ...
February 4th – Road Block
What I'm Reading Roadblock: Demand for warehouses in the Inland Empire is massive, pushing new development further east. However, residents are not happy with having new industrial developments nearby and are pushing back hard, resulting in substantial delays or the outright withdrawal of applications. Globe Street This is great news...