What I'm Reading Liftoff: With apartment shortages across much of the country, rents are climbing at the fastest pace seen in decades. Smaller growth markets like Boise continue to lead the way. With for sale housing expensive and development not keeping pace with demand in most places, the real risk...
July 12th – Uphill Climb
Chart of the Day Focusing interest rates and demographics today. First off, safe asset interest rates have been trending downward for much longer than most of us recognize. 700 years(!) per a Bank of England working paper. Source: Bank of England Second, long term demographic growth in the US is...
June 28th – Postponed Again
What I'm Reading Kicking the Can: The CDC announced another extension of the housing eviction moratorium. The moratorium, which was scheduled to end June 30th and will now be pushed to the end of July. At least the length of the extensions is getting shorter, I guess. Globe Street Fighting...
June 22nd – Scapegoat
What I'm Reading Wishful Thinking: Public pension funds are pouring money into alternatives thanks to low yields (and the fact that they still haven't lowered absurdly high return expectations). However, merely investing in alternatives doesn't necessarily generate higher returns. This quote from Jason Zweig sums it up perfectly: "The message...
June 21st – Pop Up
What I'm Reading On Demand: Pop-up distribution centers are becoming a thing as the pandemic forced retailers and e-commerce platforms to quickly and cost-effectively respond to localized demand surges in their supply chains. Chain Store Age Cream Rises to the Top: For years, international investors favored office buildings when it...
June 18th – Pile Up
What I'm Reading Pile Up: SKW Funding and Bain Capital have formed a JV targeting $1.3 billion of acquisitions and loan originations on troubled assets over the next several years. The money targeting distress keeps pouring in despite a lack of actual distress. Consider this yet another reminder that fundraising...
June 15th – Round Trip
What I'm Reading Out of Balance: A recent study by LendingTree found that median housing costs were lower for renters than for homeowners with a mortgage in all 50 of the largest US metro areas. Lending Tree Backed Up: The primary driver of the inflationary spike that we are currently...
June 11th – Sweet Spot
One Big Thing Topping Out: Economic data is beginning to show signs that the recent surge in US inflation is peaking, despite higher than expected CPI readings that were heavily influenced by massive inflation in used cars. Capital Spectator The second half of this year could be really interesting if...
June 9th – Leap of Faith Part 1
One Big Thing Construction prices are soaring and eating into the yields of multifamily developers. In an environment like this, its nearly impossible to forecast costs over the typical 2-3 year build cycle for most large multifamily buildings. As a result, developers have to gamble that rent increases will keep...
June 4th – Hitting the Water
What I'm Reading Hitting the Water: The National Marine Manufacturers Association says powerboat sales hit a 13-year high in 2020, with 310,000 new vessels sold, up 12 percent from the previous year. Difficult as it is to believe, 2021 is looking even better. As of February, shipments of new powerboats...