What I'm Reading Shedding SZN: The popular narrative in the warehouse space is that Amazon has a glut of warehouse space and is looking to dump it via sublease. A closer look at Amazon’s plans to sublet warehouse space show that it is largely looking to shed traditional, mid-market warehouses...
June 9th – How Low Can You Go?
What I'm Reading How Low Can You Go? The MBA's Market Composite Index, which includes purchase and refinance applications, fell 6.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis to 288.4, compared to 645.4 one year ago. That's the lowest level in 22 years. Reuters What a brutal time to be in the...
June 8th – Danger Zone
What I'm Reading Danger Zone: Diesel prices are increasing at a quicker rate than gasoline prices and inventories, especially on the east coast continue to drop. A loss of global refinery capacity is primarily to blame. Freight Waves I'm surprised that this isn't getting more attention. The entire global supply...
June 6th – Pick Your Poison
What I'm Reading Leveling Off: Rent is still increasing sharply YoY but the pace is slowing somewhat. Calculated Risk Trade Off: Just-in-time inventory management substantially reduced the risk of inventory cycle recessions where over-ordering leads to a glut. In the post-pandemic world, companies are increasingly opting for a just-in-case model...
June 1st – Disconnect
What I'm Reading Disconnect: US Economic data aren't adding up. Incomes indicate a very strong economy while expenditures show a somewhat weakening one. Something in the data is incorrect. The Overshoot Bullwhip: Lumber prices have shed over 50% since March and lumber yards are filling up as mills slow their...
May 27th – Dropping the Hammer
What I'm Reading Dropping the Hammer: In a surprising decision, the First District of the California Court of Appeal upheld approval of a 43-unit residential project following years of NIMBY obstruction, government resistance and numerous court challenges. What's interesting here is that the court called out CEQA as a "formidable...
May 26th – Great Outdoors
What I'm Reading Great Outdoors: Institutional investors are turning their sights on amenity rich campgrounds and RV parks as a way to capitalize on the pandemic boom in vehicle sales and camping. Investors are looking to follow the same institutionalization playbook as single family rentals and mobile homes and see...
May 25th – The Great Unbundling
What I'm Reading The Great Unbundling: A recently published Federal Reserve analysis of household formation shows a meaningful decline in living with roommates / others since the pandemic, coupled with a rise of living alone. This happened as consumption of housing went up during the pandemic and I've referred to...
May 23rd – Whack-A-Mole
What I'm Reading Whack a Mole: Americans moved around a lot over the past two years, and those destinations also now happen to have the highest inflation rates in the U.S per new research from Redfin. Conversely, places like San Francisco that people left tend to have lower inflation. Redfin...
May 19th – Cash Trap
What I'm Reading Cash Trap: The rapid appreciation of the dollar this year helps boost the exports of weaker countries while alleviating inflationary pressures in the US by lowering the cost of imports. However, it also translates into higher import prices, more costly external debt servicing and greater risk of...