What I'm Reading Holding the Bag: The Federal Reserve now owns $2.72 trillion in mortgage backed securities, up from $1.4 trillion in 2020. It has announced the intent to shrink that amount substantially in order to help tighten monetary policy. However, most of those loans are at much lower rates...
May 17th – The Waiting Game
What I'm Reading The Waiting Game: Buyers who signed contracts for new homes are now facing the risk that rising mortgage rates will make them unable to afford it by the time the home is completed. Wall Street Journal Open the Gates: More than four dozen former national security leaders...
May 12th – Pushback
What I'm Reading Pushback: Consumers are doing less grocery shopping online as health concerns fade and consumers become more cost conscious thanks to inflation. Chain Store Age Offshored: The tech industry is warning that more remote jobs are headed out of the US thanks to worker shortages and a lack...
May 10th – Clearing the Deck
What I'm Reading Clear the Deck: Western ports are bracing for increased congestion when China eventually lifts stringent Covid-19 restrictions in major cities, which could come just as many importers start to load up for the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons. The race is on to clear existing cargo and...
May 9th – Boomerang
What I'm Reading Boomerang: Millions of older Americans retired early during the pandemic, leaving the US in a severe labor imbalance. However, new data indicates that they are returning to the workforce in large numbers in recent months. Many retirees are being pulled back to jobs by a combination of...
May 4th -Falling Behind
What I'm Reading Substitution Effect: Executives running some of the world’s biggest retailers, manufacturers and consumer-products makers say they are seeing signs that people are becoming less willing to absorb price increases. This includes an uptick in demand for discount products. Wall Street Journal Falling Behind: Debt funds, life insurance...
May 3rd – Dried Up
What I'm Reading Dried Up: Refinance activity has dried up and isn't expected to rebound this year per Old Republic Title's earnings call. Housing Wire Drying Out: Arizona has become the first state to experience deep cutbacks caused by a drought-fueled decline in the Colorado River. The reduction will hit...
April 25th – Warning Sign
What I'm Reading Warning Sign: China's property market accounts for a massive % of global commodity consumption. Chinese housing starts have now fallen 17% or more for three consecutive quarters. Looks like a commodity downturn could be in the cards. Financial Times Mean Reversion: Soaring mortgage rates have resulted in...
April 22nd – Tough Nut to Crack
What I'm Reading Tough Nut to Crack: The price of a home sold in March set a record, as inventory dwindled and sales fell. Sharply rising mortgage rates are not showing much of an impact on housing yet. CNBC As discussed here previously, I believe that structural factors in the...
April 21st – Back to School
What I'm Reading Boomtown: A massive population influx has set off a boom in South Florida's industrial market. With low vacancies, scarce land and continued population and economic growth, its likely to continue. Wealthmanagement.com Back to School: BREIT's insatiable appetite continues with its just-announced purchase of student housing REIT American...