What I'm Reading Exodus: Companies continue to abandon millions of square feet of office space. Things appear poised to get worse with a record number of leases expiring in the second half of 2022. Business Insider Doubling Down: Santa Monica is moving to tighten its notoriously tight rent controls even...
July 26th – Cornered
What I'm Reading No Easy Way Out: Builders are slamming on the brakes as home sales slow in light of extremely strained affordability. However, demand turns much quicker than supply and today's stoppage in production will likely sew the seeds of tomorrow's even more pronounced shortage. New York Times Pivot:...
July 25th – Levelling Off?
What I'm Reading Topping Out: Active housing inventory for sale is up 29% year over year. However, it has been sitting at this level for three weeks now after soaring earlier in the year. Per Bill McBride: "This might be noise, or it might suggest a slowdown in inventory increases."...
July 21st – Tipping Point?
What I'm Reading Tipping Point? Industrial developers are delivering nearly 700m sf of warehouses across the US following two years of record absorption. Tenant demand remains incredibly strong. However, with a recession likely coming, there is an increasing risk of overbuilding in some markets. Bisnow Hitting Pause: Amazon has been...
July 15th – Looking Ahead
What I'm Reading Looking Forward: CPI hit a 40-year high but its a backward-looking number. Many forward looking indicators are starting to tell a very different story – a story of falling demand and falling prices, and the risk of falling into deflation. Pragmatic Capitalism Beat the Heat: Some employees...
July 14th – No Shelter
What I'm Reading Walk Out: Some California truckers who move containers in and out of the marine terminals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach say they plan to participate in a work stoppage Wednesday to protest a controversial state law, AB5, that seeks to limit the use...
June 30th – Nudge
What I'm Reading Boxed In: Steeper borrowing rates and high prices in the housing market are leading many buyers to give up. That is welcome news for owners of single-family rental homes. Wall Street Journal Moment of Truth: A recession will either be the catalyst that forces employees back to...
June 24th – Pulling the Ripcord
What I'm Reading Pulling the Ripcord: Looking back, the non-bank mortgage lenders rushing to sell shares to the public last year was probably the peak of the business cycle. Since then, borrowing costs have doubled, the market has slowed to a crawl and the buyers of those IPOs are left holding...
June 16th – The Hangover
What I'm Reading The Hangover: California has a near-$100 billion budget surplus thanks to booming asset prices leading to a capital gains windfall. As usual, politicians in Sacramento are fighting over how to spend the money quickly by establishing new social programs or funding large one-time expenditures. However, with asset...
June 9th – How Low Can You Go?
What I'm Reading How Low Can You Go? The MBA's Market Composite Index, which includes purchase and refinance applications, fell 6.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis to 288.4, compared to 645.4 one year ago. That's the lowest level in 22 years. Reuters What a brutal time to be in the...