What I'm Reading Tipping Point? Industrial developers are delivering nearly 700m sf of warehouses across the US following two years of record absorption. Tenant demand remains incredibly strong. However, with a recession likely coming, there is an increasing risk of overbuilding in some markets. Bisnow Hitting Pause: Amazon has been...
July 13th – Stand Off
What I'm Reading Stand Off: The industrial market remains extremely tight when it comes to occupancy and rent growth. However, transactions are slowing as the bid-ask spread between buyer and seller rise. Globe Street Haves and Have Nots: Remote work may be great for long time employees but it has...
July 12th – Mixed Signals
What I'm Reading Mixed Signals: The US employment report for June continued to show a strong labor market consistent with a strong economy with moderating inflationary pressures. However, other economic data are telling a worrisome story of an economy that could be entering into recession even while the underlying inflation...
June 23rd – Perfect Storm
What I'm Reading Perfect Storm: Supply chains are experiencing a massive bullwhip from the COVID economy and have resulted in a build up in inventory levels. At the same time, a slowdown in consumer spending caused by inflation could result in a recession. Freight Waves IMO, consumer discounts are coming....
June 20th – Domino Effect
What I'm Reading Domino Effect: Higher mortgage rates and a slowing housing market will help slow inflation today. However, it will also lead to less home building and layoffs across the housing industry ranging from builders to lenders and everything in between. As a result, a slowdown today likely makes...
June 16th – The Hangover
What I'm Reading The Hangover: California has a near-$100 billion budget surplus thanks to booming asset prices leading to a capital gains windfall. As usual, politicians in Sacramento are fighting over how to spend the money quickly by establishing new social programs or funding large one-time expenditures. However, with asset...
June 1st – Disconnect
What I'm Reading Disconnect: US Economic data aren't adding up. Incomes indicate a very strong economy while expenditures show a somewhat weakening one. Something in the data is incorrect. The Overshoot Bullwhip: Lumber prices have shed over 50% since March and lumber yards are filling up as mills slow their...
May 26th – Great Outdoors
What I'm Reading Great Outdoors: Institutional investors are turning their sights on amenity rich campgrounds and RV parks as a way to capitalize on the pandemic boom in vehicle sales and camping. Investors are looking to follow the same institutionalization playbook as single family rentals and mobile homes and see...
May 17th – The Waiting Game
What I'm Reading The Waiting Game: Buyers who signed contracts for new homes are now facing the risk that rising mortgage rates will make them unable to afford it by the time the home is completed. Wall Street Journal Open the Gates: More than four dozen former national security leaders...
March 24th – Terminal Velocity
What I'm Reading Staying Power: Zillow's latest forecast predicts that the year-over-year rate of home price growth will hit 22% in May before gradually slowing to 17.8% in February 2023. This despite a dramatic rise in mortgage rates and decline in household affordability. Zillow It's almost as if people who...