What I'm Reading Staying Put: Nine out of ten mortgages in America carry an interest rate of less than 5%, which is the official level at which most new 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are now being written. Expect homeowners to hold onto their houses longer. Axios Sounding the Alarm: A Riverside...
March 15th – Lockdown
What I'm Reading Political Risk: With the housing market tight and rents exploding higher in much of the country, an increasing number of municipalities are considering rent control measures. Wall Street Journal What is most astounding here is that this hasn't worked anywhere that its been tried and typically makes...
March 4th – Seller’s Market
What I'm Reading Sellers Market: A new Reuters poll of property analysts suggests that US house prices would rise 10.3% this year. That was an upgrade from 8.0% in the December poll, suggesting underlying demand for housing is still strong and housing supply is still tight. Reuters Hitting the Wall:...
February 10th – Shrinkage
What I'm Reading Shifting Focus: Foreign investment in US commercial real estate has exceeded pre-pandemic levels. The big difference is that overseas investors are focusing much more on warehouses and apartments than they were before the pandemic - just like domestic investors. Wall Street Journal Rise of the Machines: Advances...
February 8th – Fire Sale
What I'm Reading Fire Sale: Retail rents are plunging in Manhattan as a lack of office workers makes businesses less viable. On the positive side, falling rates and aggressive concessions have led to falling availability as tenants snap up prime locations at a discount. Bloomberg Decelerating: CoreLogic is projecting that...
January 24th – On the Clock
What I'm Reading On the Clock: The 2017 tax law contains a provision allowing for bonus depreciation on eligible assets, allowing investors who qualify as a real estate professional to shelter income, even in the absence of a 1031 exchange. A sunset provision was built into the law, meaning that...
January 19th – In Limbo
What I'm Reading Not Out of the Woods: Trepp's overall CMBS delinquency rate increased for the first time in 18 months. The move was driven by issues in the office sector which is still facing work from home headwinds. Over the next five years, 42% of the full-term interest-only loans for office...
January 11th – Open House
What I'm Reading Open House: Supply chain issues are making it difficult for home builders to complete new houses, despite increased building activity. As a result, mostly finished units are often sitting for weeks, awaiting the delivery of items like garage doors and gutters. Wall Street Journal No End in...
December 6th – Pancaked
What I'm Reading Pancaked: The yield curve has been flattening quickly with short rates rising and long rates falling. This could leave the Fed in a bind as the yield curve trajectory suggests that it could be inverted before a hiking cycle ever begins. All Star Charts Interesting to note...
December 2nd – Pushback
What I'm Reading Pushback: SB 9, which effectively eliminated single family zoning in California by allowing duplexes, and in some cases four units, in most single family home neighborhoods is set to take effect on January 1st. However, some cities are rushing to pass new restrictions. An initiative has also...