What I'm Reading Fighting the Last War: We tend to look to the recent past to understand today's market. However, the inflationary period of the late 1970s - which saw a decline in real housing prices with nominal prices up somewhat - is probably a better analogy than the housing...
March 18th – Taking Flight
What I'm Reading Taking Flight: The message from the Federal Reserve earlier this week was extremely hawkish, forecasting aggressive rate hikes. That being said, the yield curve is now essentially flat (the 5y-30y US OIS curve went negative) and Fed Funds futures are projecting a rate cut in 2024. The...
March 10th – Riding the Wave
What I'm Reading Riding the Wave: Industrial supply is not likely to catch up with demand anytime soon, even as developers ramp up new construction. As a result, both rent and property values should continue to surge. Globe Street Much like what the market experienced during the pandemic, I expect...
March 7th – Stepping Up
What I'm Reading Ghost Town: Manhattan’s office availability rate hit 17.4% last month, a new record, according to Colliers data. Since the pandemic began in March 2020, overall availability has increased by 74.1% and now sits at nearly 94M SF. Bisnow Stepping Up: Amazon is pulling back on its logistics...
March 4th – Seller’s Market
What I'm Reading Sellers Market: A new Reuters poll of property analysts suggests that US house prices would rise 10.3% this year. That was an upgrade from 8.0% in the December poll, suggesting underlying demand for housing is still strong and housing supply is still tight. Reuters Hitting the Wall:...
March 1st – Drop it Like its Hot
What I'm Reading Staying Put: Despite a surge during COVID, US mobility has been falling for decades and the problem is getting worse as affordability issues intensify. When people want to move but can't, it leads to economic stagnation and political polarization. Vox Drop it Like It's Hot: Mortgage rates...