What I'm Reading Double Edged Sword: The Fed is raising interest rates aggressively to bring down inflation. However, it will also crush investment, which will likely sew the seeds of future shortages as demand recovers quicker than supply can. This is the double edged sword in the housing market right...
June 24th – Pulling the Ripcord
What I'm Reading Pulling the Ripcord: Looking back, the non-bank mortgage lenders rushing to sell shares to the public last year was probably the peak of the business cycle. Since then, borrowing costs have doubled, the market has slowed to a crawl and the buyers of those IPOs are left holding...
June 23rd – Perfect Storm
What I'm Reading Perfect Storm: Supply chains are experiencing a massive bullwhip from the COVID economy and have resulted in a build up in inventory levels. At the same time, a slowdown in consumer spending caused by inflation could result in a recession. Freight Waves IMO, consumer discounts are coming....
June 22nd – Make it Rain
What I'm Reading Make it Rain: An LA Times review of state data found that it routinely costs more than $1m per unit to build a subsidized affordable housing unit in California. Between prevailing wage requirements, high material and regulatory costs, the process has become so bloated with corruption and...
June 21st – Help Wanted
What I'm Reading Help Wanted: Construction projects across the U.S. are running short on labor just as $1 trillion in federal infrastructure money starts to kick in. Contractors are responding by offering benefits ranging from signing bonuses to housing allowances to attract and retain workers. Wall Street Journal Drying Up? Over...
June 20th – Domino Effect
What I'm Reading Domino Effect: Higher mortgage rates and a slowing housing market will help slow inflation today. However, it will also lead to less home building and layoffs across the housing industry ranging from builders to lenders and everything in between. As a result, a slowdown today likely makes...
June 16th – The Hangover
What I'm Reading The Hangover: California has a near-$100 billion budget surplus thanks to booming asset prices leading to a capital gains windfall. As usual, politicians in Sacramento are fighting over how to spend the money quickly by establishing new social programs or funding large one-time expenditures. However, with asset...
June 15th – Tapping the Brakes
What I'm Reading Tapping the Brakes: From construction cost increases, to higher interest rates and rate cap costs and slowing sales, inflation is taking a toll on the CRE industry. Globe Street My guess? We are about to see a substantial slowdown in new development as the cost of capital...
June 14th – Taking the Plunge
What I'm Reading Jumping In: Big landlords are increasingly getting into the homebuilding business as demand for single-family rentals continues to surge. CNBC This is exactly what one should expect will happen given that the monthly cost of home ownership has doubled since January 2021. Priced Out: The cost of...
June 13th – Shedding SZN
What I'm Reading Shedding SZN: The popular narrative in the warehouse space is that Amazon has a glut of warehouse space and is looking to dump it via sublease. A closer look at Amazon’s plans to sublet warehouse space show that it is largely looking to shed traditional, mid-market warehouses...