What I'm Reading Slow Motion Crash? Two years after the initial covid outbreak, vacancy rates continue to climb in major office markets around the country, taking a toll on property performance. Barclays analysts noted last week that the share of office mortgages that have been assigned to either "watchlists" of...
March 31st – Easing Up?
March 25th – Pendulum Swinging
What I'm Reading Pendulum Swinging: Geopolitical stability and improvements in transportation and communications in recent decades allowed companies and countries to opt for what seemed to be the cheapest and easiest supply chain solutions rather than the most secure. Recent world events have revealed the risks of opting for inexpensive...
March 23rd – Booming Boomers
What I'm Reading Booming Boomers: Covid-19 kept many older Americans on the sidelines of the recovery in consumer spending as they held back from in-person services like dining and travel despite seeing their wealth increase dramatically. But their spending is picking up as the Omicron wave recedes, and analysts say...
March 8th – Buyer’s Remorse?
What I'm Reading Buyer's Remorse? RV sales surged during the pandemic. Some new owners are finding vehicle upkeep to be more than they bargained for. USA Today $6 gasoline is only going to add to the buyer's remorse. This is a perfect illustration of why I've been far more bullish...
February 18th – Shelter in Place
What I'm Reading Shelter In Place: Higher interest rates will make move up buyers with low, fixed mortgage rates and tons of equity less likely to move. Instead, they will likely renovate or expand their existing homes. At the same time, builders confidence is declining as rates rise and supply...
February 14th – Squeezed
What I'm Reading Squeezed: U.S. housing affordability continues to get worse by the day as home prices rise alongside mortgage-interest rates. Wall Street Journal Roadmap: The 2013 taper tantrum and 1994’s crunch are good examples of how a bond bear market does not always need to equal recession. Bloomberg Crosswinds:...
February 9th – Round Trip
What I'm Reading Out of the Basement: The amount of negative yielding debt in the world is falling rapidly. After topping out at $17.8 trillion at the end of 2020, it has dropped to $6.1 trillion today. Expect this to continue to fall as central banks hike. Bloomberg One big...
February 7th – Defying Gravity
What I'm Reading Defying Gravity: Apartment leasing is typically a seasonal business, with demand cooling with the weather in the winter months. That has not been the case in 2021 and thus far in 2022. Both Q4 occupancy and January occupancy increased for the first time in history, according to...
February 4th – Road Block
What I'm Reading Roadblock: Demand for warehouses in the Inland Empire is massive, pushing new development further east. However, residents are not happy with having new industrial developments nearby and are pushing back hard, resulting in substantial delays or the outright withdrawal of applications. Globe Street This is great news...