What I'm Reading Material Shortfall: Dealers in John Burns’ building products survey appear to be planning and buying inventory based on an inaccurate expectation of growth in 2022. If the results of the survey turn out to be accurate, materials companies are underestimating demand, which will cause more shortages and...
January 17th – In the Spotlight
What I'm Reading In the Spotlight: Non-traditional property sectors like manufactured homes, gaming, cold storage, healthcare and single-family rentals will likely be the top performing CRE assets in 2022. Globe Street Stretched Thin: Guest demand is back across a substantial portion of the hospitality industry. However, shortages caused by supply...
December 17th – Spreading Out
What I'm Reading Spreading Out: There is building anecdotal evidence that a substantial portion of surging demand for housing is due to the US undergoing another episode of average household sizes shrinking, much as it did in the 1970s. Calculated Risk Whack a Mole: People are ricocheting between skyrocketing rents...
December 6th – Pancaked
What I'm Reading Pancaked: The yield curve has been flattening quickly with short rates rising and long rates falling. This could leave the Fed in a bind as the yield curve trajectory suggests that it could be inverted before a hiking cycle ever begins. All Star Charts Interesting to note...
November 4th – Sitting Ducks
What I'm Reading Sitting Ducks: Idle cargo containers piling up in ports and storage yards have created a target-rich environment for thieves, resulting in yet another supply chain headache. Cargo theft has increased 42% YoY in California during the 3rd quarter. CargoNet Out of Their Hands: The inflationary episode of...
October 21st – Stacked Deck
What I'm Reading Stacked Deck: Perhaps the biggest reason for the current truck capacity shortage is the surge of goods moving west to east. Simply put, there is too much freight exiting Southern California and too little coming into the area. The problem will persist until the imbalance eases. Think...
October 1st – Pointing Fingers
What I'm Reading Pointing Fingers: Frustrations are boiling over at the Ports of LA and Long Beach as freight continues to pile up. Truckers are pointing fingers at a lack of dock help to offload ships. Port officials are pointing to a struck driver shortage. The only thing that both...
September 20th – Flipped
What I'm Reading Down for the Count: Leisure travel has experienced a strong bounce back year in 2021. However, business travel is still struggling. Corporate, group, government, and other commercial travel – are expected to be down by $59 billion in 2021 from 2019, according to a report from the...
June 2nd – Big Wave?
One Big Thing For years, people wanted to live in places where it is the most difficult to build, driving prices in those regions up. Now, with remote and hybrid work a possibility, buyers are aiming their sights towards larger properties in the exurbs and builders are struggling to keep...
May 21st – Clogged
What I'm Reading Clogged: This week's housing starts number was a big disappointment, especially given the lack of supply that has helped lead to rising prices. It has a lot to do with a lack of finished lot inventory that has caused a major bottleneck, forcing builders to slow down. ...