What I'm Reading In the Cold: US real estate investors like Hines and Morgan Stanley have ridden out ruble devaluations, financial crises and the economic sanctions that followed Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea to chalk up positive returns on their Russian real estate portfolios. Now they are facing calls to...
March 1st – Drop it Like its Hot
What I'm Reading Staying Put: Despite a surge during COVID, US mobility has been falling for decades and the problem is getting worse as affordability issues intensify. When people want to move but can't, it leads to economic stagnation and political polarization. Vox Drop it Like It's Hot: Mortgage rates...
February 18th – Shelter in Place
What I'm Reading Shelter In Place: Higher interest rates will make move up buyers with low, fixed mortgage rates and tons of equity less likely to move. Instead, they will likely renovate or expand their existing homes. At the same time, builders confidence is declining as rates rise and supply...
February 15th – Upside-Down
What I'm Reading South of the Border: Californians looking for lower mortgage or rent payments are increasingly heading south to Mexico for more affordable prices, and the influx of residents has sparked a real estate boom in Tijuana. Fox Business As I have said in this space before, of of...
February 14th – Squeezed
What I'm Reading Squeezed: U.S. housing affordability continues to get worse by the day as home prices rise alongside mortgage-interest rates. Wall Street Journal Roadmap: The 2013 taper tantrum and 1994’s crunch are good examples of how a bond bear market does not always need to equal recession. Bloomberg Crosswinds:...
February 11th – Coming in Hot
What I'm Reading Coming in Hot: YoY inflation is now 7.5%, the highest rate since 1982. As expected OER, which tends to be sticky turned sharply higher. This seals the deal for a 25 basis point increase at the Fed's March meeting. It also increases the odds of a 50...
February 9th – Round Trip
What I'm Reading Out of the Basement: The amount of negative yielding debt in the world is falling rapidly. After topping out at $17.8 trillion at the end of 2020, it has dropped to $6.1 trillion today. Expect this to continue to fall as central banks hike. Bloomberg One big...
February 4th – Road Block
What I'm Reading Roadblock: Demand for warehouses in the Inland Empire is massive, pushing new development further east. However, residents are not happy with having new industrial developments nearby and are pushing back hard, resulting in substantial delays or the outright withdrawal of applications. Globe Street This is great news...
January 31st – Breaking Point
What I'm Reading Coming Up Short: Two years after Apple, Google, and Meta vowed to spend $4.5 billion to create more than 40,000 new homes in their home state of California, they’ve accomplished a fraction of that goal. The Real Deal Turns out that all the cash in the world...
January 28th – The Great American Camp Out
What I'm Reading The Great American Camp Out: Results for the RV Industry Association’s December 2021 survey of manufacturers determined that total RV shipments for 2021 ended with a record 600,240 wholesale shipments, surpassing the 2017 total of 504,599 shipments by 19%. Total RV shipments for 2021 increased 39.5% over...