One Big Thing Jonathan Litt of hedge fund Land and Buildings is predicting that next year will see a bounce back in the performance of pandemic-impacted real estate but that it will ultimately prove to be a mirage as secular headwinds turn against these market segments (emphasis mine): The Vaccine...
December 17th – Flotation Aid
One Big Thing In the first week of December, the proportion of mortgage borrowers that sought forbearance rose to its highest level since August. Delinquencies are climbing as well, as some borrowers are either not eligible for forbearance or are still unaware that they may be eligible. NREI Reading the paragraph...
December 16th – Cracking the Code
Cracking the Code: Dr. Peter Linneman of Linneman Associates and Matt Larriva, vice president of research and data analytics at Chevy Chase, Md., property firm FCP, believe they have devised a methodology that accurately forecasts acquisition yields up to a year into the future. The model is based on the unemployment...
December 15th – Checked Out
What I’m Reading Checked Out: Buyers are spending more time than ever in their vacation homes. Mansion Global See Also: A new homes.com survey found that 45% of respondents would move if they could work remotely. Forbes Soaring: Home equity reached a record high in 2020 as American homeowners gained a whopping $1 trillion. Core Logic See...
December 14th – Unlocked
What I’m Reading Unlocked: Increased adoption of remote work has enabled high earners to move to lower tax states like never before. At some point high tax cities and states are going to have to acknowledge that the conditions that allowed them to increase rates – namely the requirement of proximity...
December 11th – Staying Power
What I’m Reading Staying Power: Office CMBS distress may last quite a bit longer than initially thought according to Trepp as revenues continue to decline while expenses rise. Globe Street See Also: As employers eagerly await the Covid-19 vaccines that promise to return staff to offices after months of working from home, new...
December 10th – Downdraft
What I’m Reading Downdraft: The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 75.4 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by December 6. While that is a whopping 780 basis point drop from 2019, it should be noted that December 5th and 6th both fell...
December 9th – Balancing Act
One Big Thing California’s eviction moratorium is scheduled to expire in early February. A new assembly bill is seeking to extend it through the end of 2021. Concurrently another assembly bill is attempting to establish a framework for dispersing rental relief. (h/t Steve Sims) Connect Media Two comments here: While I’m...
December 8th – Spin Cycle
One Big Thing I’ve been hearing a lot of chatter about the future of cities of late, especially those of the large gateway variety that boomed in the years following the Great Recession. The latest example is a Globe Street piece last week that excerpted a CBRE podcast about the future of...
December 7th – Behind the Curve
What I’m Reading Behind the Curve: As expected, eCommerce orders surged to previously unseen levels this Black Friday and Cyber Monday. It got to the point that UPS put limits on pickups at several large retailers in an effort to not overwhelm their systems, despite knowing that this was coming. Wall Street...