March 22nd – Upward Spiral

What I’m Reading

Upward Spiral: Employment is strong and rents are rising quickly. People want to buy homes, in part to protect themselves against rising rents.  The obvious answer is to build more homes.  However, this is easier said than done thanks in part to a shortage of raw materials and available labor.  Bloomberg

Compressed: Cap rates declined across the entire commercial real estate spectrum in 2021 with the most pronounced drop occurring in the white hot industrial market.  Globe Street

Misplaced Blame: Shipping container costs soared during the pandemic in the face of overwhelming demand that rebounded before supply could catch up.  Now the Biden administration is taking aim at the shipping industry, citing it’s record profits and directed his administration to provide more support for investigations into antitrust violations and other unfair practices. NY Times I can’t see how this would possibly reduce prices given the economic forces at play but we are now in a midterm election year, so……

Dispersion: A new working paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that approximately a third of all jobs are candidates for remote work, but an astonishing 80% of highly skilled service employees can do their jobs from anywhere.  This is obviously bad news for the traditional city center model where office employment supports ancillary businesses.  Thus the push from big city mayors to get people back to work.  In order to keep cities vibrant and growing, leaders need to invest in things that will make their cities more enticing: basic services, amenities, and a renewed focus on housing.  Business Insider

Inverted: It would seem obvious that homeowners would pay a premium to live near transportation hubs in major cities.  However, a new analysis conducted by economists at Barclays found that there is now a discount associated with properties near rail stations in the NYC area, suggesting that suburbanites don’t see regular, five-day-per-week commutes in their future.  MarketWatch 

Chart of the Day

The market expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in early 2024.

Image

Source: The Daily Shot

WTF

Flipped: A drunk driving suspect who told police she had not consumed alcohol was contradicted by her own nine-year-old son, who declared from the car’s back seat, “Mom, you can’t lie to the police. You did drink” because Florida.  The Smoking Gun

Trapped: Police  arrested a man on drug charges after they found him shouting for help while trapped inside of a port-a-potty because Florida. KIRO7

Basis Points – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related. 

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