What I'm Reading Upward Spiral: Employment is strong and rents are rising quickly. People want to buy homes, in part to protect themselves against rising rents. The obvious answer is to build more homes. However, this is easier said than done thanks in part to a shortage of raw materials...
March 21st – Calm Before the (Next) Storm?
What I'm Reading Calm Before the (Next) Storm? In the first two months of 2022, the queue of ships waiting for Southern California berths fell, velocity of cargo moving through terminals increased and more boxes were unloaded at Southern California docks. However, part of the improvement may be due to...
March 18th – Taking Flight
What I'm Reading Taking Flight: The message from the Federal Reserve earlier this week was extremely hawkish, forecasting aggressive rate hikes. That being said, the yield curve is now essentially flat (the 5y-30y US OIS curve went negative) and Fed Funds futures are projecting a rate cut in 2024. The...
March 17th – Up, Up and Away
What I'm Reading Up, Up and Away Part I: Demand for single-family rental homes is soaring, pushing prices to record highs, as Americans continue to want larger homes with outdoor spaces per the latest report from CoreLogic. Sunbelt cities like Miami and Phoenix are leading the charge. CNBC Up, Up...
March 16th – On Watch
What I'm Reading On Watch: There is a strong correlation between a dramatic rise in oil prices and recessions. Historically, not every recession is preceded by a 50% rise in oil but every 50% rise in crude has resulted in a recession but not for the reason that you may...
March 15th – Lockdown
What I'm Reading Political Risk: With the housing market tight and rents exploding higher in much of the country, an increasing number of municipalities are considering rent control measures. Wall Street Journal What is most astounding here is that this hasn't worked anywhere that its been tried and typically makes...
March 14th – Back from the Dead
What I'm Reading Back From the Dead: Congress seems poised to revive the EB-5 visa program with higher minimum investments. The reinstated program will also aim to crack down on gerrymandering of high-unemployment areas into shapes that include more prosperous places, which allowed developers a loophole to use the program...
March 11th – Coming in Hot
What I'm Reading Coming in Hot: RV and boat storage remains in incredibly high demand. In 2021, consumers visiting Self Storage facilities websites managed by StoragePug were seeking out boat and RV parking at a whopping 250% higher rate than they did in 2020. (h/t Scott Ramser) Radius+ Combine this with...
March 10th – Riding the Wave
What I'm Reading Riding the Wave: Industrial supply is not likely to catch up with demand anytime soon, even as developers ramp up new construction. As a result, both rent and property values should continue to surge. Globe Street Much like what the market experienced during the pandemic, I expect...
March 9th – In the Cold
What I'm Reading In the Cold: US real estate investors like Hines and Morgan Stanley have ridden out ruble devaluations, financial crises and the economic sanctions that followed Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea to chalk up positive returns on their Russian real estate portfolios. Now they are facing calls to...