What I’m Reading The Long View: Despite the typical election year rhetoric, a historic analysis of commercial real estate done by Cushman and Wakefield shows that the asset class tends to perform well under both Democrat and Republican administrations. To be clear, individual sectors or strategies can absolutely be impacted by...
October 19th – Color Me Skeptical
One Big Thing A Barclay’s analyst went on CNBC last week and made the claim that converting an underperforming mall to a distribution center or residential complex could reduce the value of the property anywhere from 60% to 90%. While I believe this would be the case if a top...
October 15th – Permanent Vacation
What I’m Reading Permanent Vacation: Vacation home demand is soaring during the pandemic as people with means look for places to escape to now that they can’t travel abroad. Wall Street Journal See Also: Park City, Utah’s housing market is white hot as wealthy buyers pile in, pushing median home prices above $2MM. The Salt...
October 14th – No Shock Here
What I’m Reading No Shock Here: Transactional volume has fallen sharply, but refinancing activity is keeping the capital markets moving through the pandemic. This is a best-case scenario for a sharp downturn since it means that there is still ample liquidity for performing assets that require recapitalization due to loan maturity. ...
October 7th – On the March
What I’m Reading On the March: Construction costs have continued to increase, despite a plunge in GDP, throwing up another hurdle in an already challenging development environment. Bisnow Spread Out: Research from Trepp and Compstak found that the spread between starting rents and effective rents has increased 27% in major metro office markets,...
October 5th – The Empire Strikes Back
What I’m Reading The Empire Strikes Back: Despite a persistent narrative about California being a net COVID loser, the metros with the largest apartment rent increases in the 3rd Quarter of 2020 were Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, according to RealPage, Inc’s quarterly report on effective asking rents. California’s denser and...
October 2nd – Headache
What I’m Reading Headache: Percentage rents are likely to have staying power for retailers even after the pandemic subsides. However, As omnichannel sales strategies grow more popular, the breakdown between online and brick-and-mortar stores is becoming blurry, making it difficult to establish what sales should be included in the percentage rent...
September 30th – Misleading
I’m back! Spent the last week RV camping on California’s Central Coast. It was a lot of fun but good to be back in the saddle. What I’m Reading Misleading Metrics: The article from my interview with Globe Street’s Erika Morphy about sponsor overreliance on cash on cash returns as a...
September 10th – Can’t Get Out
Can’t Get Out: US imports from Asia in August jumped 34 percent from June, driven by ongoing strong demand for e-commerce fulfillment and personal protective equipment (PPE). Imports from China alone last month were up 32 percent from June. I’ve been skeptical about the whole re-shoring-due-to-COVID narrative (outside of perhaps...
September 9th – Hot Spot
What I’m Reading Hot Spot: California investors typically account for 30% to 40% of transaction volumes in Arizona, but recently, that number has increased to 50% as capital from the Golden State flocks to more business friendly locales. Globe Street Setting a Precedent: There are several shut-down generated lawsuits currently making their way...