One Big Thing Like me, most of you probably woke up yesterday morning to the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine news from the AP: Pfizer Inc. said Monday that its COVID-19 vaccine may be a remarkable 90% effective, based on early and incomplete test results that nevertheless brought a big burst of optimism...
November 9th – Thou Dost Protest Too Much
One Big Thing Its no secret that office landlords – especially those in expensive coastal markets – are struggling. Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) is one of the worst positioned for the post-pandemic world with the vast majority of its holdings in NYC. Vornado’s recent earnings sucked – and missed already-low...
October 6th – Ridin’ High
What I’m Reading Ridin’ High: While the general election may still not be officially settled, one clear winner has emerged: recreational marijuana. Ballot measures passed in New Jersey, Arizona, South Dakota and Montana to legalize the adult use and sale of recreational cannabis, while Mississippi and South Dakota (in a separate...
November 2nd – Lifeline
What I’m Reading One Big Thing: A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how ESG trends are likely to provide a growing headwind for the office market in the coming years. Today, I’m going to focus on a different segment of the real estate market that I’ve followed closely for years: housing....
October 30th – On the Move
What I’m Reading On the Move: For decades, the share of Americans moving to new cities has been falling. The pandemic-induced rise of telework is turning that trend around. This is perhaps a silver lining in the chaos that is 2020. Axios Before the pandemic, the top 15 most expensive cities in the...
October 29th – Face Off
What I’m Reading Faceoff: Public employee unions (for) and commercial real estate companies (against) are spending a massive amount of money in the battle over prop 15, which would remove Prop 13 protections for most commercial real estate in California. The Sacramento Bee Lifeline: Oil demand is still struggling to recover during the...
October 28th – The Great Divide
What I’m Reading The Great Divide: A new report by Moody’s shows that the bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers of commercial real estate has continued to widen, with sellers seeking pandemic-induced discounts and buyers holding the line on pricing. This can continue for some time so long as liquidity remains...
October 19th – Color Me Skeptical
One Big Thing A Barclay’s analyst went on CNBC last week and made the claim that converting an underperforming mall to a distribution center or residential complex could reduce the value of the property anywhere from 60% to 90%. While I believe this would be the case if a top...
October 15th – Permanent Vacation
What I’m Reading Permanent Vacation: Vacation home demand is soaring during the pandemic as people with means look for places to escape to now that they can’t travel abroad. Wall Street Journal See Also: Park City, Utah’s housing market is white hot as wealthy buyers pile in, pushing median home prices above $2MM. The Salt...
October 9th – Long Shadows
What I’m Reading Long Shadows: Office distress has yet to really materialize. However, the risk of loan maturitites and major tenant lease expirations are casting a shadow over the sector. Roughly $27.7B of the $145B CMBS office loans Trepp tracks are set to mature by 2022. What’s more, nearly 35% of...