Cracking the Code: Dr. Peter Linneman of Linneman Associates and Matt Larriva, vice president of research and data analytics at Chevy Chase, Md., property firm FCP, believe they have devised a methodology that accurately forecasts acquisition yields up to a year into the future. The model is based on the unemployment...
December 14th – Unlocked
What I’m Reading Unlocked: Increased adoption of remote work has enabled high earners to move to lower tax states like never before. At some point high tax cities and states are going to have to acknowledge that the conditions that allowed them to increase rates – namely the requirement of proximity...
December 11th – Staying Power
What I’m Reading Staying Power: Office CMBS distress may last quite a bit longer than initially thought according to Trepp as revenues continue to decline while expenses rise. Globe Street See Also: As employers eagerly await the Covid-19 vaccines that promise to return staff to offices after months of working from home, new...
December 8th – Spin Cycle
One Big Thing I’ve been hearing a lot of chatter about the future of cities of late, especially those of the large gateway variety that boomed in the years following the Great Recession. The latest example is a Globe Street piece last week that excerpted a CBRE podcast about the future of...
December 7th – Behind the Curve
What I’m Reading Behind the Curve: As expected, eCommerce orders surged to previously unseen levels this Black Friday and Cyber Monday. It got to the point that UPS put limits on pickups at several large retailers in an effort to not overwhelm their systems, despite knowing that this was coming. Wall Street...
December 4th – Strings Attached
What I’m Reading Strings Attached: CMBS borrowers that were granted initial forbearance in Q2 2020 are requesting another round of debt relief from servicers. However, even if granted this relief is likely to come with more stringent parameters such as additional equity contributions and personal recourse. Those who refuse or don’t...
December 3rd – Emptied Out
What I’m Reading Emptied Out: In 2011, US department stores employed 1.2 million employees across 8,600 stores, according to estimates from the research firm IBISWorld. But in 2020, there are now fewer than 700,000 employees in the sector, working across just over 6,000 locations. Vox Comeback Kid: The fact that AirBnb is about...
December 2nd – The End is in Sight
What I’m Reading The End is in Sight: The Federal Reserve has told banks that they should stop writing contracts using LIBOR by the end of 2021, after which the rate no longer will be published. The current plan is that LIBOR will be fully phased out by June 30, 2023. ...
December 1st – Bargain Bin
What I’m Reading Bargain Bin: Cross border transactions are way down this year. However, the US commercial real estate market is starting to look very cheap to foreign investors, who find their currency hedging costs – driven by interest rate differentials between two currencies – aligning nicely with the direction of...
November 30th – Steady and Slow
What I’m Reading Slow and Steady: While the CMBS issuance volume has been consistently inching upward, 2020 issuance will close at roughly half of what was predicted a year ago, according to Kroll Bond Rating Agency. Kroll estimates this year’s total CMBS issuance will be $55 million while $95 billion was...