What I'm Reading Danger Zone: Diesel prices are increasing at a quicker rate than gasoline prices and inventories, especially on the east coast continue to drop. A loss of global refinery capacity is primarily to blame. Freight Waves I'm surprised that this isn't getting more attention. The entire global supply...
May 24th – Shock and Awe
What I'm Reading Shock and Awe: Amazon has put 10m square feet of warehouse space on the market (it could reportedly go up to 30m sf) as the ecommerce giant deals with excess supply brought online during the pandemic. However, a deeper look tells a different story. The 10m sf...
April 29th – On the Fence
What I'm Reading On the Fence: China's cabinet is split over whether or not to provide stimulus to bail out the country's tanking property market as fears of re-inflating a bubble persist. Financial Times Watch this space. Developers in China account for a large percentage of global commodity consumption. If...
April 25th – Warning Sign
What I'm Reading Warning Sign: China's property market accounts for a massive % of global commodity consumption. Chinese housing starts have now fallen 17% or more for three consecutive quarters. Looks like a commodity downturn could be in the cards. Financial Times Mean Reversion: Soaring mortgage rates have resulted in...
April 19th – Mean Reversion
March 29th – Off to the Races
What I'm Reading Off to the Races: Through the first three months of the year, 2022’s national rent growth is outpacing 2021’s record rent growth, according to Zumper’s National Rent Report published last week. Zumper Its almost as if home ownership becoming completely unaffordable creates more renters or something. Time...
March 16th – On Watch
What I'm Reading On Watch: There is a strong correlation between a dramatic rise in oil prices and recessions. Historically, not every recession is preceded by a 50% rise in oil but every 50% rise in crude has resulted in a recession but not for the reason that you may...
March 15th – Lockdown
What I'm Reading Political Risk: With the housing market tight and rents exploding higher in much of the country, an increasing number of municipalities are considering rent control measures. Wall Street Journal What is most astounding here is that this hasn't worked anywhere that its been tried and typically makes...
January 26th – Blood in the Water
What I'm Reading Material Shortfall: Dealers in John Burns’ building products survey appear to be planning and buying inventory based on an inaccurate expectation of growth in 2022. If the results of the survey turn out to be accurate, materials companies are underestimating demand, which will cause more shortages and...
January 19th – In Limbo
What I'm Reading Not Out of the Woods: Trepp's overall CMBS delinquency rate increased for the first time in 18 months. The move was driven by issues in the office sector which is still facing work from home headwinds. Over the next five years, 42% of the full-term interest-only loans for office...