What I'm Reading Piggy Bank: Cash out refinances have hit their highest level since the financial crisis as homeowners take advantage of low rates. Cash out transactions were muted over the past decade in the wake of the Great Recession but came back with a vengeance in 2020 as mortgage...
March 4th – Balancing Act
What I'm Reading Balancing Act: With home prices up 14.8% YOY in January and mortgage rates rising of late as well, fewer households are able to qualify for a mortgage. The beneficiary of this will likely be rental housing, both apartments and SFR. Marcus and Millichap Leverage: The Massachusetts Superior...
March 1st – Fuel on the Fire
What I'm Reading Fuel on the Fire: With long rates rising, investors in the mortgage bond market had to sell treasury positions in order to hedge their holdings, accelerating last week's bond market selloff. Christopher Maloney of Bloomberg explains what is happening perfectly: The forced sellers are investors in the...
February 24th – Slim Pickings
What I'm Reading Slim Pickins: Despite increasing mortgage rates, housing inventory is still at a record low. One thing to watch here as the vaccine rolls out: COVID exposure has been given as one reason that people are reluctant to list their homes. While that was undoubtedly true last spring,...
February 19th – Narrative Violation
What I'm Reading Narrative Violation: For almost a year now, there has been a popular media and financial industry narrative that people are leaving San Francisco in droves and pouring into Austin and Miami. However, a new report from the postal service based on change of address (COA) requests found...
February 8th – Dead End?
What I'm Reading Dead End? Distressed debt hedge funds raised billions to take advantage of COVID opportunities. However, the capital markets have largely recovered and junk yields have plunged, leaving them with few opportunities to deploy their dry powder. This is totally reminiscent of the Great Recession when capital raised...
January 28th – Storm Clouds
What I'm Reading Storm Clouds: The apartment sector has been a bright spot during COVID-19 but that is starting to change. Enhanced eviction protection, lower rent collections and unprecedented declines in asking rent in some urban markets are taking their toll on apartment owners. During the pandemic, the share of...
January 25th – Rocket Fuel
What I'm Reading Rocket Fuel: Morgan Housel's latest piece about how COVID has substantially accelerated wealth and income inequality is an outstanding read and makes a strong case for an economic boom in the coming years - at least for some. This section on mortgage refinancings and the accompanying chart...
January 19th – Mismatch
What I'm Reading Mismatch: Residential development is booming and unemployment is relatively high, yet home builders are still experiencing a labor shortage. This is due to both a stigma about working in construction (even though it often pays more than some office jobs) and a lack of workers who have...
January 11th – Wait and See
What I’m Reading Wait and See: NNN lease investors had assumed that Republicans would win the Georgia Senate special election and the 1031 exchange would be safe. Now that the Democratic party candidates have prevailed, those investors are anxiously awaiting President Elect Biden’s first 100 day agenda to see if the...