What I’m Reading In the Blocks: Conditions are perfect for distressed debt funds – which usually perform well during certain economic conditions, including when monetary conditions have been dramatically eased and when high-yield debt issuance is high. This according to a report on crisis-era distressed debt returns by Julian Falcioni at...
October 15th – Permanent Vacation
What I’m Reading Permanent Vacation: Vacation home demand is soaring during the pandemic as people with means look for places to escape to now that they can’t travel abroad. Wall Street Journal See Also: Park City, Utah’s housing market is white hot as wealthy buyers pile in, pushing median home prices above $2MM. The Salt...
October 14th – No Shock Here
What I’m Reading No Shock Here: Transactional volume has fallen sharply, but refinancing activity is keeping the capital markets moving through the pandemic. This is a best-case scenario for a sharp downturn since it means that there is still ample liquidity for performing assets that require recapitalization due to loan maturity. ...
October 13th – Mind the Gap
One Big Thing Over the past couple of months, it has become fairly obvious that another round of support will not be forthcoming from the federal government – at least not until after the election. Given our recent economic struggles, conventional wisdom dictates that this sort of news would send...
October 12th – Hanging On
What I’m Reading Hanging in There: After showing signs of deterioration when enhanced UI ended, the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker is – remarkably – at exactly the same level that it was at in 2019 for the first week of October. NMHC The Great Divide: Pricing expectations between sellers and buyers have continued...
October 9th – Long Shadows
What I’m Reading Long Shadows: Office distress has yet to really materialize. However, the risk of loan maturitites and major tenant lease expirations are casting a shadow over the sector. Roughly $27.7B of the $145B CMBS office loans Trepp tracks are set to mature by 2022. What’s more, nearly 35% of...
October 8th – Tip of the Iceberg
What I’m Reading Tip of the Iceberg: Germany will introduce new legislation giving all employees the right to work from home in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, following Ireland, France and The Netherlands. If this trend continues, it will have negative impacts on office markets around the world. The Telegraph Time’s...
October 7th – On the March
What I’m Reading On the March: Construction costs have continued to increase, despite a plunge in GDP, throwing up another hurdle in an already challenging development environment. Bisnow Spread Out: Research from Trepp and Compstak found that the spread between starting rents and effective rents has increased 27% in major metro office markets,...
October 6th – Wipeout
What I’m Reading Wipeout: Los Angeles office leasing has ground to a near-halt, down 61% year-over-year. Commercial Observer Breaking Point: With studios moving blockbuster releases back to 2021, movie theaters are among the many businesses that do not have a clear path to recovery. CNBC Resilient: Back when the pandemic shutdowns began, dire predictions of...
October 5th – The Empire Strikes Back
What I’m Reading The Empire Strikes Back: Despite a persistent narrative about California being a net COVID loser, the metros with the largest apartment rent increases in the 3rd Quarter of 2020 were Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, according to RealPage, Inc’s quarterly report on effective asking rents. California’s denser and...