One Big Thing Jonathan Litt of hedge fund Land and Buildings is predicting that next year will see a bounce back in the performance of pandemic-impacted real estate but that it will ultimately prove to be a mirage as secular headwinds turn against these market segments (emphasis mine): The Vaccine...
December 15th – Checked Out
What I’m Reading Checked Out: Buyers are spending more time than ever in their vacation homes. Mansion Global See Also: A new homes.com survey found that 45% of respondents would move if they could work remotely. Forbes Soaring: Home equity reached a record high in 2020 as American homeowners gained a whopping $1 trillion. Core Logic See...
December 11th – Staying Power
What I’m Reading Staying Power: Office CMBS distress may last quite a bit longer than initially thought according to Trepp as revenues continue to decline while expenses rise. Globe Street See Also: As employers eagerly await the Covid-19 vaccines that promise to return staff to offices after months of working from home, new...
December 9th – Balancing Act
One Big Thing California’s eviction moratorium is scheduled to expire in early February. A new assembly bill is seeking to extend it through the end of 2021. Concurrently another assembly bill is attempting to establish a framework for dispersing rental relief. (h/t Steve Sims) Connect Media Two comments here: While I’m...
December 8th – Spin Cycle
One Big Thing I’ve been hearing a lot of chatter about the future of cities of late, especially those of the large gateway variety that boomed in the years following the Great Recession. The latest example is a Globe Street piece last week that excerpted a CBRE podcast about the future of...
December 7th – Behind the Curve
What I’m Reading Behind the Curve: As expected, eCommerce orders surged to previously unseen levels this Black Friday and Cyber Monday. It got to the point that UPS put limits on pickups at several large retailers in an effort to not overwhelm their systems, despite knowing that this was coming. Wall Street...
November 30th – Steady and Slow
What I’m Reading Slow and Steady: While the CMBS issuance volume has been consistently inching upward, 2020 issuance will close at roughly half of what was predicted a year ago, according to Kroll Bond Rating Agency. Kroll estimates this year’s total CMBS issuance will be $55 million while $95 billion was...
November 20th – Swept Under the Rug
What I’m Reading Swept Under the Rug: October marked the fourth straight month that the overall lodging delinquency rate has fallen, according to Trepp. Unfortunately, this isn’t due to improved property performance but rather granted forbearance that is allowing loans to “current” status. Globe Street See Also: A new survey of American Hotel &...
November 19th – Ringing the Bell
One Big Thing The Fed is now in a tricky spot when it comes to their massive mortgage bond buying program (emphasis mine): All of this serves to squeeze mortgage-bond investors in higher-rate securities. Most of them bought the debt at a premium, and the constant reduction in lending rates leaves...
November 16th – Such a Tangled Web
What I’m Reading Tangled Web: As malls continue to struggle, their financing structures – which have only grown more complex over time – are making restructuring particularly challenging. This is perhaps the biggest downside of using CMBS, especially when layered with other forms of financing. When you borrow from a bank...