What I'm Reading Dead on Arrival: $12.3 trillion of economic stimulus over the past year effectively killed off the US credit default cycle despite the lingering pandemic, resulting in the lowest-rated companies enjoying their cheapest borrowing costs in history. Bloomberg Blowback: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announced an interim rule...
April 20th – Turning the Corner
What I'm Reading Turning the Corner: An analysis of the pace of CRE workouts by Real Capital Analytics showed that more US commercial real estate distress was worked out than arose in Q1. However, the authors were careful to note that there is still sizeable potential distress on the horizon...
April 19th – So It Begins (In Earnest)
What I'm Reading So It Begins: Despite the economic recovery, Q4 bank loan CRE data showed an uptick in distress, especially in hospitality assets. To be sure, this is still much lower than many anticipated but supports the thesis that reopening is a moment of truth for struggling properties. Those...
April 12th – The Great Invasion
What I'm Reading Invasion of the Nerds: Residents of Silicon Valley set their sights on Austin, Texas during the pandemic, making the city even more tech centric. The migration is also exporting Bay Area problems to Austin, resulting in a housing shortage that is threatening to price locals out, soaring...
April 8th – Deflating
What I'm Reading Deflating: A new study by data firm VTS, which tracks tens of thousands of negotiations across the U.S. between landlords and tenants found that big companies are sticking with their city-center office buildings. However, they are also cutting back on space, likely driving down rent for years...
April 7th – Light the Fuse
What I'm Reading Light the Fuse: After a decade-long drought, worker productivity might be about to accelerate thanks to pandemic-induced technological adoption, which could lift economic growth and wages in coming years while staving off inflation pressure. Companies made massive investments in technology, automation and videoconferencing software over the past...
March 31st – All For One
What I'm Reading Halt: As expected, the CDC extended their eviction ban residential evictions until the end of June. However, the extension makes no substantive changes to the policy, despite housing advocates pushing the administration to boost enforcement measures to prevent landlords from going around the moratorium. Politico Next Wave's...
March 30th – Game Over
What I'm Reading Game Over: Massive crowdfunding sinkhole Prodigy Network has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. The company, which had raised a reported $690MM from investors was overleveraged and besieged by lawsuits when its founder died suddenly in May and investor communication ceased. This is a tragic reminder of the...
March 26th – Recycled
What I'm Reading Recycled: In a sign of how valuable logistics real estate has become, some developers are taking old, unused golf courses and building warehouses on them. Imagine trying to explain this to someone who time traveled to 2021 from 2002. Bloomberg En Fuego: Austin has become America's hottest...
March 23rd – Overflow Conditions
What I'm Reading Overflow: The red hot housing market coupled with stubbornly high unemployment has ignited a boom in new realtors. However, housing supply - which was already low before 2020 - has been dropping like a rock and there are now more realtors than homes for sale in the...