What I’m Reading Slow and Steady: While the CMBS issuance volume has been consistently inching upward, 2020 issuance will close at roughly half of what was predicted a year ago, according to Kroll Bond Rating Agency. Kroll estimates this year’s total CMBS issuance will be $55 million while $95 billion was...
November 25th – Locked Down
What I’m Reading Locked Down: In a move that should come as no surprise, President Elect Joe Biden and his team are leaning towards extending the CDC eviction moratorium that is set to expire December 31st. Ultimately, this program is just a band aid that forces landlords to shoulder the burden...
November 23rd – Its Going Down
What I’m Reading Its Going Down: The MBA is out with its 2021 market outlook for housing. The big news here is that they are projecting a major slowdown for the mortgage lending industry with refinances falling a whopping $1 trillion – from $1.97 trillion to $971 billion – thanks to...
November 19th – Ringing the Bell
One Big Thing The Fed is now in a tricky spot when it comes to their massive mortgage bond buying program (emphasis mine): All of this serves to squeeze mortgage-bond investors in higher-rate securities. Most of them bought the debt at a premium, and the constant reduction in lending rates leaves...
November 18th – Back in Line
First, Some Corporate News: RanchHarbor closed on our second deal since launching. This one is a sale-leaseback industrial portfolio in San Diego that was purchased in a joint venture with Stos Partners. Really excited to get another one in the books that will provide a solid yield for our investors. ...
November 9th – Thou Dost Protest Too Much
One Big Thing Its no secret that office landlords – especially those in expensive coastal markets – are struggling. Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) is one of the worst positioned for the post-pandemic world with the vast majority of its holdings in NYC. Vornado’s recent earnings sucked – and missed already-low...
October 27th – Stepping Down
What I’m Reading Stepping Down: One of the cornerstones of former VP Joe Biden’s tax plan is eliminating the inheritance of property at a stepped up basis. This could have substantial value implications for commercial real estate – especially if the eventual plan classifies death as an immediately taxable event –...
October 23rd – Walking Away
What I’m Reading Walking Away: Trepp researchers parsed special servicer notes on distressed real estate backed by CMBS loans and found a substantial number of borrowers are willing to give assets back to lenders if defaults aren’t cured. As you can probably imagine, most of these are in the hotel and...
October 13th – Mind the Gap
One Big Thing Over the past couple of months, it has become fairly obvious that another round of support will not be forthcoming from the federal government – at least not until after the election. Given our recent economic struggles, conventional wisdom dictates that this sort of news would send...
October 9th – Long Shadows
What I’m Reading Long Shadows: Office distress has yet to really materialize. However, the risk of loan maturitites and major tenant lease expirations are casting a shadow over the sector. Roughly $27.7B of the $145B CMBS office loans Trepp tracks are set to mature by 2022. What’s more, nearly 35% of...