What I'm Reading Short Term Bet: As thousands of retail leases come up for renewal, their duration is increasingly shrinking, as businesses grapple with an unpredictable future and look for ways to slash costs, stay flexible and maintain leverage over their landlords, even after the health crisis abates. If the...
March 2nd – Backroom Deal
What I'm Reading Locked and Loaded: Private Equity firms’ global real estate funds are now sitting on more than $300 billion of unspent cash, according to Preqin data. Their attention is now turned to what happens when government support and bank forbearance expires. Most of this capital is looking for...
March 1st – Fuel on the Fire
What I'm Reading Fuel on the Fire: With long rates rising, investors in the mortgage bond market had to sell treasury positions in order to hedge their holdings, accelerating last week's bond market selloff. Christopher Maloney of Bloomberg explains what is happening perfectly: The forced sellers are investors in the...
February 26th – Mind the Gap
One Big Thing Treasury yields are soaring of late so of course a lot of the conversation around commercial real estate in general and multi-family in particular is when cap rates will begin to reflect this. I have a bit of a contrarian take that I outlined on a Twitter...
February 25th – Swamped
What I'm Reading Swamped: As the nation begins to climb out of the depths of the COVID-19 crisis, landlords will be forced to fight for office tenants, creating a tenant’s market unlike any other over the past few decades with availability rising 15-20% in some markets. Vestian Hot Spots: Boise,...
February 24th – Slim Pickings
What I'm Reading Slim Pickins: Despite increasing mortgage rates, housing inventory is still at a record low. One thing to watch here as the vaccine rolls out: COVID exposure has been given as one reason that people are reluctant to list their homes. While that was undoubtedly true last spring,...
February 23rd – Showing My Age
One Big Thing One of my blogging topics is narrative violation. A narrative violation what happens when a piece of data runs counter to a popular story or trend. The classic example of this was the whole “millennials never want to own homes or cars” thing that was making the...
February 22nd – Deep Thoughts
February 19th – Narrative Violation
What I'm Reading Narrative Violation: For almost a year now, there has been a popular media and financial industry narrative that people are leaving San Francisco in droves and pouring into Austin and Miami. However, a new report from the postal service based on change of address (COA) requests found...
February 16th – Flight to Paradise
What I'm Reading Flight to Paradise: With the northern hemisphere in the middle of winter and many regions still under pandemic lockdowns, wealthy buyers are more motivated than ever to purchase homes on warm-weather islands, sometimes sight unseen. I'm seeing this play out in real time on the big island...