What I’m Reading Faceoff: Public employee unions (for) and commercial real estate companies (against) are spending a massive amount of money in the battle over prop 15, which would remove Prop 13 protections for most commercial real estate in California. The Sacramento Bee Lifeline: Oil demand is still struggling to recover during the...
October 28th – The Great Divide
What I’m Reading The Great Divide: A new report by Moody’s shows that the bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers of commercial real estate has continued to widen, with sellers seeking pandemic-induced discounts and buyers holding the line on pricing. This can continue for some time so long as liquidity remains...
October 27th – Stepping Down
What I’m Reading Stepping Down: One of the cornerstones of former VP Joe Biden’s tax plan is eliminating the inheritance of property at a stepped up basis. This could have substantial value implications for commercial real estate – especially if the eventual plan classifies death as an immediately taxable event –...
October 26th – Real Time
What I’m Reading Real Time: New tracking technology that allows landlords to dynamically set rental rates on a daily basis make multi-family a better inflation hedge than ever before. Globe Street Christmas is Cancelled: In yet another blow to holiday mall traffic (and gig employment), mall Santa’s are likely to lose their gigs...
October 23rd – Walking Away
What I’m Reading Walking Away: Trepp researchers parsed special servicer notes on distressed real estate backed by CMBS loans and found a substantial number of borrowers are willing to give assets back to lenders if defaults aren’t cured. As you can probably imagine, most of these are in the hotel and...
October 22nd – The Long View on Politics and CRE Investment Performance
What I’m Reading The Long View: Despite the typical election year rhetoric, a historic analysis of commercial real estate done by Cushman and Wakefield shows that the asset class tends to perform well under both Democrat and Republican administrations. To be clear, individual sectors or strategies can absolutely be impacted by...
October 19th – Color Me Skeptical
One Big Thing A Barclay’s analyst went on CNBC last week and made the claim that converting an underperforming mall to a distribution center or residential complex could reduce the value of the property anywhere from 60% to 90%. While I believe this would be the case if a top...
October 16th – In the Blocks
What I’m Reading In the Blocks: Conditions are perfect for distressed debt funds – which usually perform well during certain economic conditions, including when monetary conditions have been dramatically eased and when high-yield debt issuance is high. This according to a report on crisis-era distressed debt returns by Julian Falcioni at...
October 15th – Permanent Vacation
What I’m Reading Permanent Vacation: Vacation home demand is soaring during the pandemic as people with means look for places to escape to now that they can’t travel abroad. Wall Street Journal See Also: Park City, Utah’s housing market is white hot as wealthy buyers pile in, pushing median home prices above $2MM. The Salt...
October 14th – No Shock Here
What I’m Reading No Shock Here: Transactional volume has fallen sharply, but refinancing activity is keeping the capital markets moving through the pandemic. This is a best-case scenario for a sharp downturn since it means that there is still ample liquidity for performing assets that require recapitalization due to loan maturity. ...